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Even before Iran’s army chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri ordered an investigation into the helicopter crash that killed two of the Islamic republic’s top politicians, blame was already being placed on the United States.

The body of President Ebrahim Raisi was carefully removed from the crash site, while former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif bluntly declared on Iranian state television that “One of the reasons for this heartbreaking incident is the United States, which has blocked the sale of the aircraft industry.” Iran caused the martyrdom of the President and his comrades. The United States’ crime will remain etched in the minds and history of the Iranian people.” US officials immediately dismissed the allegations as “baseless”.

There are many reasons why an old, US-made Bell 212 helicopter from the Vietnam War era could have crashed. Poor maintenance or human error in heavy fog are some of them. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said it was too early to decide on the cause of the crash, but initial indications were that it was an accident caused by fog.

But why did Iran take the risk of carrying both the President and the Foreign Minister in a single helicopter, when three were used to carry the delegation to the inauguration of the dam on the border with Azerbaijan that day?

When Raisi – accompanied by his foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdullahian, the provincial governor, Malek Rahmati, and the influential imam of Friday prayers in Tabriz, Mohammed Ali Aleihashem – landed by helicopter at the Qiz Ghalee dam on Sunday morning, visibility was good.

The sun was shining when Raisi shook hands with his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev at the border, in the middle of the dam, on a bridge over the calm waters of the Aras River. The day had apparently started well. Relations between the two countries, which were cold till then, seem to be warming.

On the route chosen by the crew to travel to the regional center of Tabriz, where the presidential plane was waiting, the weather was worsening.

Although the seasonal rains were subsiding, another season was emerging. Cold and wet. Fog thickened around the rugged, inaccessible peaks 1,800 meters high in the direct flight path.

So, first question: why fly through mountains when it may be safer to detour around the mountain range or to another destination?

The next question could be that knowing that the weather was bad and there were three helicopters on the journey, why were the President and the External Affairs Minister put on the same plane?

The accident also revealed Iran’s lack of preparedness to deal with a disaster of this nature.

There seemed to be no shortage of employees, but they lacked the right technology.

In the middle of the night, while hundreds, if not thousands, of doctors, climbers, soldiers, police and even the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps scaled steep peaks and deep ravines, it was Turkish drone AKINCI, in a loop above Was flying. Badal, the first to locate the helicopter trail.

For a country that manufactures, uses, and exports long-range killer drones to countries like Russia for its war in Ukraine and to non-state actors like Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen—who currently control global maritime trade are put. Attacking ships in the Red Sea – There did not appear to be any simple surveillance drone capable of performing this task.

Shortly before AKINCI began recording its systematic surveillance patterns in the night sky, Iran also sought helicopters with night vision capabilities from Turkey and Russia. Obviously, if they had them, they wouldn’t have been able to get them there fast enough.

On a night that appears to be of utmost importance to Iran and its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s military power – projected through its pivot to the Middle East and its ally Russia – looked hollow.

Former Foreign Minister Zarif wants the world to believe that Iran’s technological base has been hollowed out by US sanctions, but this claim is also tainted by arrogance.

If, as they claim, the President’s helicopter was a victim of a shortage of quality spare parts due to US sanctions, then why risk the lives of the President and the Foreign Minister on an aircraft potentially considered unsuitable? The question doubles as to what other air transport possibilities there were, and if there were none.

Iran’s president is not passive, he needs to move from place to place. Planning for better options could have become a higher priority. Was it perhaps arrogance among the upper levels of the president’s staff or the military that chose to rely on chance? According to Zarif, the maintenance of the Bell 212 was a potential problem.

This wouldn’t be the first time that ego trumps logic, but it’s undoubtedly the saddest for those involved.

The underlying irony is that Raisi himself was one of the architects of Iran’s aura of power, but when he needed it most, he found it empty.