German Olaf Scholz could become a serious problem for Ukraine

This article was originally published in English

After months of effective stalemate, a new narrative of the Ukrainian conflict is taking over. Unless the West expands and intensifies its support for the Ukrainian military, Russia may soon have a big opportunity.

And since the US House of Representatives has not yet approved a new US military aid package, European NATO allies are moving to increase their contributions to the war effort. But not everyone agrees, and the continent’s largest economy is becoming increasingly serious political and strategic problemBoth for Ukraine and for NATO as a whole.

Germany has come a long way since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The then-relatively new government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a major change in German defense policy by announcing that the country would provide military hardware to Ukraine, a move that helped demonstrate that the country would provide military hardware to Ukraine. Overall, how seriously the West was taking this conflict.

However, since then, the German role in the war has remained somewhat unclear. On the one hand, German content is arriving in Ukraine, albeit intermittently. The country’s Defense Ministry clearly recognizes the seriousness of the conflict: It has urged Europe to anticipate a major Russian threat to countries beyond Ukraine, and it

Deploying combat-ready battalions to LithuaniaWhich means that German troops will be deployed just 100 km away from the Russian border.

But on the other hand, Scholz’s government has recently resisted pressure to share one of its most powerful military assets with the Ukrainians just when they need it most.

This is the Taurus missile, a stealth missile with a range of 500 km, twice that of the British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles, both of which are used by Ukraine to hit vital Russian military targets.

The Ukrainians have been demanding the Taurus system for months, but Scholz has refused until now. The Chancellor has said that missiles cannot be sent to Ukraine because This would involve deploying German troops on the ground to programA measure that he believes could lead to a dangerous increase in risk.

Scholz made a serious diplomatic mistake By suggesting at a recent summit that French and British forces are operating cruise missiles that are apparently under Ukrainian control, neither country is doing anything that is not being acknowledged. The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the British House of Commons described his statements as “wrong, irresponsible and a slap in the face to colleagues”.

But even worse than Scholz’s refusal to send the Taurus to Ukraine was the recent leaking of a recording in which German Air Force officials were heard directly refuting Scholz’s argument, instead confirming that the missile would not actually require the deployment of German troops inside Ukraine. The recordings were disclosed by Russian media, and Moscow threatened “serious consequences” for Germany if the Taurus were deployed in Ukraine.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who has voiced some of the Kremlin’s most extreme rhetoric since the invasion, responded with some nationalist babble Via messaging app Telegram, a World War II-era poem is being shared titled “Kill him!” And writing: “The call for the Great Patriotic War has again become relevant: “Die for the German-Nazi occupiers!”

‘A leaked recording’

That such delicate conversations could be recorded and leaked, especially by the Russians, did not sit well with Germany and NATO. But the revelation that Scholze’s public excuse for stopping the Taurus was baseless has sparked deep anger. According to Benjamin Tallis, senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Recording shows Chancellor not really committed to Ukrainian victory,

“Scholz’s arguments have been dismantled one by one and exposed excusesHe added, “He announced to ‘Euronews’. The Allies have sent similar weapons and have not faced retaliation. The only thing Scholz does is show weakness and turn Germany into another target.” “After the Taurus leaks, it appears that what Scholz is really afraid of is the effectiveness of the weapon. This highlights his position of not wanting to see Ukraine win, and it is an approach that should make us less “Lets all Europeans down by making it safe.”

Inappropriate moment in the Ukrainian conflict

Recent Russian advances in the east of the country have been largely due to ammunition shortages on the Ukrainian side, which Kiev and some of its allies blame on the slowness of some Western countries in resuming the war effort. Is.

In addition to continuing to inflict significant damage on Russian forces – which, According to KyivMore than 400,000 troops have been lost since February 2022 – The Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently focused on destroying high-value military assets that the Russians would have difficulty replacing, including a high-tech Russian patrol vessel Which was killed by a marine drone. 4th March.

These attacks have several advantages: in addition to causing no loss of Ukrainian lives, they weaken Russia’s strategic capabilities. Challenge the idea that their vast resources provide anything like a guarantee of victory, The same can be said for missile and drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly in the Belgorod border area, which Ukraine has attacked on several occasions.

But without sufficient Western arms to sustain these efforts, and with increasing reports of troops withdrawing from their positions with ammunition depleted, Ukraine will struggle to keep alive the hopes of its closest allies.