Global life expectancy will increase by almost five years by 2050

Latest results Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021published in The Lancet predict that global life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050. So say researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent research organization that University of Washington (USA). In particular, according to this work, growth is expected to be greater in countries where life expectancy is lower, which will encourage life expectancy growth to converge across geographic regions. This trend is largely due to public health measures that have prevented and improved survival rates. cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19 and various infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases (CMNN). This study shows that the current shift in disease burden towards noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes, as well as exposure to risk factors associated with NCDs such as obesity, high blood pressure blood pressure, suboptimal diet and smoking will have the greatest impact on the disease burden of the next generation.

Global life expectancy is expected to increase

As the burden of disease continues to shift from CMNN to NCDs and from years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD), More people are expected to live longer, but with more years of poor health.. Global life expectancy is projected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years). Global healthy life expectancy (HALE), the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years ). To reach these conclusions, the study projects cause-specific mortality; YLL; YLD; disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, or healthy life years lost due to poor health and premature death); Lifespan; and HALE from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories. “In addition to increasing overall life expectancy, we found that differences in life expectancy between geographic regions will decrease,” says Chris Murray, professor of health metrics at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (IHME). “This is an indication that although health inequalities between higher and lower income regions will persist, gaps are narrowing and the biggest growth is expected in sub-Saharan Africa.” Murray emphasizes that the greatest opportunity to accelerate the reduction of the global burden of disease is through policies aimed at preventing and mitigating metabolic and behavioral risk factors. These findings are based on the results of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, also published in The Lancet. The study also presents several alternative scenarios to compare the possible health consequences if different public health interventions were able to eliminate exposure to several groups of key risk factors by 2050. “We expect large differences in global DALY burden between different alternative scenarios to see which has the biggest impact on our overall life expectancy data and DALY projections.” Stein Emil Volseth, first author of the study and head of the GBD collaborating unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “Globally, projected effects are stronger for the Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (DALYs) in 2050 compared to the Baseline (most likely) scenario.”

The authors also considered two scenarios. more: one dedicated to a safer environment, and the other to improving child nutrition and vaccinations. “While the greatest impact on the global burden of DALYs was observed in the Improved Metabolic and Behavioral Risk scenario, we also projected reductions in disease burden in the Safer Environment and Better Child Nutrition and Vaccination scenarios beyond our baseline scenario. forecast,” says Amanda E. Smith, associate director for forecasting at IHME. “This demonstrates the need for further progress and resources in these areas, and the potential to accelerate progress by 2050.” “We have enormous opportunities ahead. influence the future of global health outpace these increasing metabolic and dietary risk factors, especially those associated with behavioral and lifestyle factors such as high blood sugar, high body mass index and high blood pressure,” concludes Dr. Murray.