Global warming is affecting the sustainability of commercial flights

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of turbulence that affects commercial flights and may explain what happened to a plane flying from London to Singapore this week, with a sudden loss of altitude for 4 terrifying minutes. Happened.

The intense turbulence that hit a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore this week could be linked to climate change, Nature magazine has warned.

The turbulence caused a sudden loss of altitude for 4 minutes, killing a 73-year-old man and injuring more than 70 passengers. They also forced the plane to divert to Bangkok, Thailand, ten hours after taking off from the British capital.

In aviation, turbulence is one of the most unpredictable forces that pilots and airlines have to contend with. According to the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), there have been approximately 200 turbulence-related injuries on aircraft since 2009.

Unstable atmosphere

Turbulence can be associated with various conditions, storms, terrain, another aircraft taking off, or even sudden temperature changes at high altitudes.

Turbulence occurs when two large masses of nearby air move at different speeds.

If the speed difference is large enough, the atmosphere cannot withstand the stress and turbulent patterns emerge, like whirlpools in water, which destabilize aerial navigation.

dangerous disturbance

According to experts, when this turbulence becomes severe and rips the plane apart in mid-flight, it becomes a kind of projectile: it causes a roller coaster effect, shooting out anyone who isn’t wearing a seat belt at the time.

Although it is not yet known for certain what type of turbulence caused the Singapore Airlines incident, there is speculation that the proximity of the storm created the atmospheric conditions necessary to disrupt the flight.

Is this due to climate change?

The question that has arisen following this episode is whether climate change could be having an effect, since it is absolutely true that global warming is causing increasingly stronger and more severe disturbances, says Nature.

The data in this regard is worrying: according to studies, unrest has increased significantly between 1979 and 2020, and the frequency of the most severe unrest has more than doubled worldwide in that period.

It is also predicted that severe turbulence will increase more than mild or moderate turbulence as climate change becomes more intense: for every 10 minutes spent in severe turbulence in the past, it could be 20 or 30 minutes in the future, scientists forecast.

clear connection

Furthermore, since global warming is strengthening the high-altitude air currents that cause turbulence, the cause-and-effect relationship between climate change and what happened with the flight from London to Singapore seems quite logical.

The physical connection is more than clear: the warming of the air due to CO2 emissions increases wind shear (abrupt changes in wind direction and strength) in high-altitude air streams which strengthens turbulence in clear skies, according to experts quoted by Le Temps.

More flight instability?

Does this mean that climate change will affect the stability of flights?

To answer this question many things need to be kept in mind. The first is that disturbances can be predicted based on data from satellites and sensors that identify storm-threatening clouds.

All this information is taken into account when planning flight routes. The problem arises when the sky is clear: the radar cannot detect turbulence and there are no clouds.

Other technologies

There’s another technology called Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) that can help: by emitting laser pulses and measuring the reflection from particles in the air, it provides detailed information about wind conditions and turbulence miles away from the plane. This allows pilots to actively adjust flight paths or altitudes, significantly reducing the risk of encountering severe turbulence.

In addition to onboard detection systems, some airlines are also leveraging predictive weather intelligence platforms, which provide an additional layer of data-driven insight into potential turbulence based on the latest analysis of changing atmospheric conditions, powered by AI.

Better forecasting

The integration of advanced weather forecasting with detection systems gives pilots a complete view of navigation in turbulent areas, explains Specialized Platform Tomorrow.

And there’s more: there are also pilot reports (PIREPs), which provide first-hand accounts of weather conditions encountered during flight. These reports shared within the aviation community provide timely and relevant information on turbulence locations and intensities, aiding the collective effort to navigate safely around or through turbulent patches.

Looking ahead, the continued development of weather forecasting techniques, coupled with technological innovations in aircraft design and data analysis, promises to further refine our ability to manage turbulence, ends tomorrow.

As of now, it is what it is.