Hezbollah’s tomorrow, after the death of its leader: possible candidates and strategies on the battlefield

He lebanon A new reality emerges. The most powerful man in the country has been murdered, leaving him an orphan. israel managed to kill the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan NasrallahThis Friday there was a massive bombing in Beirut. Its loss represents not only a turn For its organization and its supporters, but also for Lebanese society as a whole. Despite never holding public office, the Lebanese militia and political party general secretary was loved and hated in equal measure. Charismatic like few others, many people think they have lost a father, while they are surprised What is the next step And who will dare to fill the huge void left by Nasrallah?

Sometimes, the best solution is to keep everything in the family. It appears that this is what may be happening at Hezbollah, an organization widely known for its opaqueness and lack of transparency. First signs point towards this Hashem SafideenHis cousin is the most likely candidate to replace Nasrallah. A few days ago he had said in a speech, “In our resistance, when one leader is martyred, another takes up the flag and continues to move forward.” A new, confident and determined

This is Hezbollah’s approach to leadership succession. Nasrallah himself said goodbye in his final interments with the promise that if he lived he would return to address his followers. Saffieddin is a member of the powerful Shura Council of the group, which has very strong decision-making power and acts as an executive council, and is the head of Jihad CouncilIn charge of directing military and security activities.

Like Nasrallah, Saffiedine also wears a black turban which means descendants of prophet muhammad Of Islam. His religious status is another point in favor of him occupying the position of Secretary General of Hezbollah. Like his predecessor, the United States Department of State nominated him to the position Terrorist In 2017. Furthermore, Saffieddin has Strong ties with IranWhere his brother Abdala is the representative of the group. Although he has been considered a potential successor to Nasrallah for years, at the moment, he is the movement’s deputy head and number two in Hezbollah, Naeem QasimWho automatically assumes power after the death of Nasrallah. In the coming weeks, the Shura Council is scheduled to meet to elect a new Secretary-General.

The bombing continues

The assassination of Nasrallah has not only thrown Lebanon into crisis in a way no man’s landThe omnipotent presence of the late Hezbollah leader after 32 years, but also raises new questions about the steps to be taken in the coming days. Israeli forces have been bombing the entire country, especially the south, east and southern suburbs of Beirut, for almost a week. curdsWhich means suburb in Arabic. more than this a thousand people have diedOf which is their main objective, but it does not stop them. Following Nasrallah’s assassination, Israeli aircraft have continued to attack the Country of the Cedars, particularly targeting the punitive Dahiyya. He also died in the attack against the leader of Hezbollah Ali Karaki

Commander of Southern Lebanon, Senior General of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Abbas NilforushanAnd about 20 members of the group.

Also, in the last hours, Hezbollah has also expressed condolences on the death of nabeel qaukWho was the head of the Internal Security Unit and a member of the Executive Council. Elimination of so many militia leaders and two weeks’ time unprecedented blow In their communication structures they have lost the aura of invincibility that had surrounded the group for decades. Its command structure has been destroyed, with more than a dozen senior officers killed. Their communications have been destroyed by explosions of their pagers and walkie talkies, and many of their weapons have been destroyed in air strikes. “Suddenly, Hezbollah finds itself uncertain situation In our country”, explains the journalist Greg Carlstrom In ‘X’. “He has shown that he cannot protect his constituents, hundreds of thousands of whom are now displaced, and he feels humiliated In the face of a broader Lebanese population that was already hostile to the group,” he says.

Israel’s deep penetration

“Hezbollah has received The biggest blow to its military infrastructure Since its construction,” he says. harmful rebellionSenior Fellow at the Washington Institute and author of ‘Hezbollahland’. But the group still retains capable commanders as well as many of its most powerful assets. Precision-guided and other long-range missiles Which could cause significant damage to Israel’s military and civilian infrastructure. Angry and angry Hezbollah members will demand something more than a symbolic responseAs has been done so far, and will probably be pressured into use before they too are destroyed. He writes, “By killing Nasrallah, the Israelis demonstrated their willingness to escalate the conflict in Lebanon to unprecedented levels.” michael young

Senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

Nasrallah’s life ended after Israel’s launch over deep penetration into Hezbollah’s camp 80 bombs According to Israeli officials, within a few minutes. With the Lebanese militias so weakened, Tel Aviv may consider this a good time to start a land invasion From southern Lebanon, because its leadership would be disorganized and there would be less resistance. But Hezbollah has been training for 18 years, since the 2006 war, to fight in the next war. In his last speech before dying, Nasrallah called for a land invasion. “A historic occasion”The future of the group and Lebanon remains uncertain, but, on the other side of the border, the Israelis are not calming down once again with projectiles launched into their territory and air raid sirens sounding.