HIV/AIDS infections and deaths fell by 21% and 39% over the decade; that’s not enough

The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has proposed 2030 as “the deadline for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.” However, the US Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that global efforts may not be enough to achieve this goal. Despite the overall decline in the number of new infections, cases are rising in regions where infection rates are low.

In his study published in LancetIHME analyzed HIV/AIDS cases from 1990 to 2021 in 204 countries. They were watching reduction in the number of new HIV infections worldwide by 21.9%. The databases have grown from 2.11 million new cases in 2010 to recording 1.65 million in 2021. However, virus-related deaths fell by 39.7%, from 1.19 million deaths in 2010 to 718,000 in 2021.

Despite progress, researchers have found that not all regions of the world are struggling with HIV/AIDS in the same way. In sub-Saharan Africa, infection rates have fallen the most. Since its peak in 1995, the likelihood of contracting the virus has fallen by 60%. Instead, regions such as Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East have seen an increase in HIV incidence and mortality.

The maximum number of cases will be recorded in 2039.

Based on this data, IHME extrapolated the figures for the coming years. Although incidence is declining, this will not be enough to meet the UNAIDS 2030 targets. The number of people with HIV/AIDS is projected to peak in 2039, with an estimated total of 44.4 million cases. This will be followed by a gradual decline to 43.4 million in 2050.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 1.3 million people became infected with HIV in 2023 alone. Their cases were added to existing ones, resulting in 39.9 million people living with the infection worldwide. That year, there were 630,000 HIV-related deaths.

“Our projections show that maintaining current levels of HIV control is unlikely to achieve ambitious targets to reduce incidence and mortality by 2030. More than 40 million people worldwide will continue to require antiretroviral treatment for decades to come.” The global community will need to make sustained and significant efforts to achieve the progress necessary to maintain the status of AIDS as a public health threat,” the IHME report states.

December 1 is World AIDS Day. For this occasion, WHO chose the motto “Let’s follow the path of rights: my health, my right.” The organization uses this day to call on leaders and citizens around the world to protect the right to health by making amends. inequalities that are hindering progress towards ending AIDS.