“I don’t rule out that Trump wants to do something similar with Nicolás Maduro that he did with Kim Jong-un, taking a 180-degree turn and changing his approach toward Venezuela.”

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House assured, Latin America awaits a new sharp and uncertain turn in its relations with the United States.

Michael Shifter, a renowned expert who chairs the Inter-American Dialogue, a hemispheric think tank based in Washington, DC, says Trump’s election victory on Tuesday is “a huge blow” to the region.

In an interview with BBC Mundo, Shifter predicted that Trump’s second government would be more radical than the first and that Mexico would be the center of regional attention.

But he says the shock waves of the change of regime in the United States could also be felt in the south of the continent Perhaps open up a whole new perspective for Trump against the socialist government of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.

On Wednesday, Maduro acknowledged that there were “tensions” during Trump’s first administration, but that he is ready for a “new beginning.”

“This is a new beginning for us to bet on win-win and things are going good for the United States, things are going good for Venezuela,” the president said.

BBC Mundo spoke by phone to this professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University.

What does Trump’s new election victory mean for Latin America?

This is a big blow to Latin America. The region has already experienced this shock for four years and remembers what it meant.

And it seems to me that he is preparing a new version of another mandate that will be even more radical and extreme than before, especially on issues that relate to migration, trade, China and drugs.

On all these issues, what Trump uses, in contrast to what the Biden administration and Kamala Harris would have done, are threats and punishments. They are his favorite foreign policy tools.

So I think many parts of Latin America may be waiting for Trump to focus on other parts of the world and forget about the region.

Maybe that would be for the best, but obviously his policies, especially on immigration, trade and China, will affect the region as much as we saw in his first four years, which will be much more moderate than the years to come. Is gonna.

Are you saying this because of the promises he made or because of the team that you expect to take on US policy towards the region?

Both. Let’s remember that eight years ago, when Trump won the presidency, he threatened to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. This is what I wanted to do. However, he had advisors who told him that it was neither feasible nor practical. And he didn’t do that.

This time he has said that he is going to surround himself with advisors who will facilitate and encourage his impulses, his ideas and he will not face obstacles in pursuing his agenda.

So I think your proposals are more radical and your advisers will be more loyal, they are not going to tell you: “Mr. President, you can’t do that.”

He himself has said that his fundamental mistake in his first term was to choose advisers who were part of the establishment and did not let him do what he wanted.

Mexico is the closest Latin American country to the US, will this political change be felt most in Washington as well?

There is no doubt that in Latin America, Donald Trump and his administration’s focus will be on Mexico.

It is a country that combines all the issues that are important to it, starting from migration, drug issues like fentanyl, trade and also China, which has recently had a presence in Mexico.

I don’t think Trump is going to devote much time to South America, but Mexico will be the center of his attention. And I think we can expect a difficult and complicated relationship with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Trump has said he could impose tariffs on imports from Mexico if the country does not cut down on the entry of undocumented immigrants into the United States whom he calls “criminals.”

He also indicated that he would seek to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and that he might reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” program, which requires asylum seekers to wait there while their cases are handled. Are these all real possibilities or merely threats?

Let’s remember that his main message in 2016 was to build a beautiful wall on the border of Mexico and the United States and make Mexicans pay. Of course, he never paid for the wall, which was only partially built.

But it was somewhat symbolic, it sent a message to Mexico and its political base that he keeps his promises.

I think something similar is going to happen with deportation. Obviously it is not possible to deport 10 million undocumented immigrants from the United States, more or less half of whom are Mexicans. This would mean paralyzing the American economy.

And I think Trump is not going to do that, because the workforce in critical sectors concentrates many undocumented immigrants.

But I also deny that these are completely empty threats and he is not going to do anything because he has to show something.

So I think he’ll do something symbolic to satisfy his base and send a message to Mexico and the rest of Latin America that he’s serious about this idea.

If this were applied to bilateral relations, for example in security cooperation with Mexico, what impact could it have?

I think this will lead to a very sharp reaction and may increase tensions which will affect other issues like trade or security.

This will create a very conflictual environment. Relations with Mexico are never easy. It hasn’t been easy under the Biden administration. But it could be worse.

And if Trump’s stance is too aggressive and uses Mexico to show that he is keeping his promises, there are risks to keeping the relationship on track.

Do you think the impact of the tightening of US immigration policy and eventual mass deportations of immigrants under the new Trump administration could be felt in Central America and the rest of the region?

Especially in Mexico and Central America. This is less so in the rest of the region.

But I remember that earlier in the Trump administration, when they made threats to build a border wall, there were very important people in Chile, Argentina or Uruguay who took it as an insult to all of Latin America.

So, even if in practice they are not deporting migrants to Uruguay, I think that would create a certain Latin American solidarity with Mexico and Central America, which would be the main goal of that policy.

Many wonder what the next Trump administration’s strategy will be regarding Venezuela, as in its first term it unsuccessfully tried to sideline President Nicolás Maduro by recognizing his rival Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president. Do you have any clue?

Obviously Trump will have to deal with Venezuela. His policy in his first term failed: he bet on Guaidó, it did not work, and Maduro became stronger.

So maybe Trump has no interest in trying again what didn’t go well in his first term, taking a very tough stance that “all options are on the table” and imposing economic sanctions that failed. .

They will definitely study different possibilities.

But I don’t rule out that he could do a 180-degree turn and say he’s going to change his approach toward Venezuela, try to accommodate the Maduro regime and perhaps seek an agreement on the immigration issue. Will do what they care about.

And will also provide opportunities for your friends to do business in Venezuela and earn a lot of money. There are possibilities to do this.

Everyone says this phrase, “Trump likes strong men.” There are some merits in this, but Maduro has always been an exception: he was not liked by Trump in his first term; Quite the opposite.

And I think the explanation was that he needed the support of Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguan exiles and other people in Florida who continue to support Trump.

But we are in a different time. Trump cannot run a second campaign for the presidency. Florida is already very Republican. And I think there are other factors that are more important today.

In his first term, Trump had initiated or hinted at Kim Jong-un (leader of North Korea). I do not rule out the possibility that he wants to do something similar with Nicolas Maduro.

This is not my prediction, but worth considering. I think Trump’s advisors are studying it. I’ve heard from some Venezuelan colleagues that this was at least a topic of discussion during campaign conversations.

And what might happen to US policy toward Cuba?

There are not as many incentives as there are with Cuba and Venezuela.

The policy towards Cuba is already very strict. I don’t think he’s going to make any military effort. So I would expect the status quo to continue: Biden’s policy doesn’t differ much from the one Trump left in 2020.

I do not expect any major changes in policy towards Cuba.

Other leftist presidents in Latin America, such as Brazilian Lula or Colombian Petro, have maintained dialogue with the Biden government and, for example, sought to mediate in the Venezuela crisis, although without success. Will your relationship with America change under Trump?

I also do not think that there will be any major change in this or much attention will be paid to it.

The only factor that could aggravate the situation between Trump and Lula is the closeness of Trump and his family to the family of Bolsonaro, who has been Lula’s biggest opponent.

This can create more distance and distrust between the two. But this does not mean that they are going to break the relationship or take any dramatic step.

Some presidents from the region, such as Salvadoran Nayib Bukele and Argentina’s Javier Meili, have recently reached out to Trump, attending conservative events in his favor and being quick to congratulate him on his election victory. Do you expect more cooperation from the Trump White House with their governments?

I don’t think there will be much practical support.

Let’s remember that when Trump was president he had two years that coincided with Bolsonaro’s presidency. And it cannot be said that in practice the benefits to Brazil were very large.

I think it’s more at the diplomatic, symbolic level, with some warm embraces and international conferences. But I have little doubt that this will yield any benefits associated with resource commitments.

In Argentina, some speculate that perhaps the Trump government might give more decisive support to Miley’s economic plans in Argentina before financial organizations…

I doubt whether this can happen. Perhaps this is an expectation or hope that has little basis in practicality.

The IMF’s cooperation with Argentina is related to changes within Argentina to which it must comply. I don’t think Trump is bailing out Argentina or giving it special treatment within the IMF.

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