In June, the Central Bank bought some dollars and the warning light came on

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After months of quiet, some concerns were raised in June about the performance of Central Bank Reserve Reserves (BCRA). Despite the field being in full harvest, the monetary authority is having difficulty obtaining foreign exchange and has accumulated purchases of just US$25 million this month. This postcard contrasts with the first months of Javier Milei’s administration, when dollars flowed daily into the coffers of monetary education, and leaves analysts doubtful about How could this panorama influence the exit of shares from the stock exchange? The third quarter of the year is ahead.

Yesterday the Central Bank had to part with $156 million, marking the biggest sell-off of reserves in the Miley era. It was a strange week for the market as three local holidays and one international holiday (yesterday in the US) weighed on the market and caused the government to close the week with a negative balance of US$74 million.

On a monthly basis, the figure remains positive at US$25 million. But in comparison, as of May 20, the BCRA had accumulated $1.983 million. “These are unexpected values ​​for this time of year, when the arrival of a bountiful harvest was expected to restore dwindling supplies,” said Melisa Sala, an economist at LCG.

Gustavo Quintana, Cameraman, Cambios PR, June was affected by increased demand. First of all, because it felt import payment

which were made at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, in which cancellations were allowed for 180 days. Secondly, because there were more of them. payment for import of energy and fuel due to seasonal factors, due to higher domestic consumption.

“Some exporters have also been asked to suspend liquidation. due to political tensions that dissipated after the result in the Senate on the Basic Law, although consideration by deputies remains. In turn, rumors about completion to mix 80/20 (exporters can settle at 20% at the settlement exchange rate and 80% at the official exchange rate) and possible adjustment of the official wholesale exchange rate,” he concluded.

This Monday, staff report The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that The export expansion program will end at the end of June. However, government authorities publicly denied this in an attempt to clear up uncertainty in the export sector. Although they added that the end of the dollar to mix This is on the agenda, they have not set a date on the calendar and have stated that the wholesale exchange rate will continue to move at 2% monthly.

“When analyzing working days, agricultural calculations reach a level similar to May. Therefore, we have to look at what is happening with demand, where we see a greater need for energy payments and that four import quotas have accumulated. This creates a tighter currency market that is likely to last for a long time. And this means that the balance of central foreign exchange interventions tends to be lower and more volatile; sometimes negative, sometimes positive. This should impact not only June, but also July, when energy imports will remain high and liquidation volumes will likely decline slightly. And in August, agriculture will settle even less. More difficult months are coming,” agreed Gabriel Caamaño, director of consulting firm Ledesma.

In addition, according to the economist, months of expiration dates are also approaching. The government will have to pay the Fund $645 million. It will have to set aside about US$1.5 billion in July to pay off Bonares and Globales bonds. And in July you will receive the first installment (the second in August) on the cancellation of Bopreal Series 2, worth about US$170 million. ““All of this will make it difficult to accumulate reserves unless there is a redefinition of the exchange rate framework.”

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These data contrast with the purchasing dynamics that the Central Bank had in the first six months of the La Libertad Avanza government. At the moment, Since December 10 last year, they have managed to obtain US$17.271 million to restore net reserves that the Alberto Fernandez administration had left in negative territory. Creating this dollar cushion is important for the government to set itself on the path to ending foreign exchange restrictions, one of the great campaign promises.

“Some of the reserves were genuine: changes in relative prices (devaluation) and the absence of drought. Another, no less minor part of the accumulation process was determined by more indirect factors, which There are doubts about the sustainability of this process in the coming months: Access to dollars for imports in installments, the collapse of imports as a result of the noted recession, the increase in the PAIS tax and the failure to pay BCRA dollar obligations date back to the previous administration,” warned the LCG economist.

Over the next seven months Taking into account financing needs, the write-off of floating debt to importers, the dynamics of exports (20% outside the official market) and the balance of other components of the balance of payments, the economic consulting company calculated that The BCRA may have a balance of as little as US$25 billion to pay for imports to maintain standing reserves.

He added that this is “too low” a level that will only be achievable if economic activity falls or the dollar rises. “This would require authorizing payments of US$3,500 million per month.

even lower than the $3.2 billion approved in April,” he compared.

Portfolio Personal de Inversiones (PPI) analysts noted in the same spirit, pointing to the dynamics of the sale of reserves that the Central Bank has observed in recent days. ‘predicts troubling prospects’ for third quarter if shares remain flat. If the government does not lift foreign exchange restrictions before purchasing foreign currency becomes difficult, the path could become even more difficult.

“Instead, farm dollars can emerge with the right incentives. Maybe bigger spreading bid-crawl it makes leverage more expensive and reduces the gap, or Even a possible exit from equities could mitigate the typical de-accumulation of reserves in the third quarter.”they closed.

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