In northern Israel they fear a full-blown war with Hezbollah – DW – 07/02/2024

Periodically the sound of bombs breaks the peace outside Kibbutz Shamir in the Upper Galilee region of northern Israel. The Israeli-occupied Golan Heights are just a few metres away. Further northwest is the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon.

Gilad Yehudai, 45, warns that the relative calm is illusory. “Here, in the Upper Galilee and along the entire border with Lebanon, there’s already a war going on: missiles, drones, fires, alarms all the time,” he told DW.

He worries that the situation is getting worse. “People who live in central Israel don’t feel the war the way we do,” he says. “I hate to say it, but I believe in them (Hezbollah), I believe in their threats and that they will carry them out.”

Attacks on both sides of the border have intensified in recent weeks. The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia launches missiles and drones from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, and the Israeli Air Force conducts raids deep into southern Lebanon. Both sides have stepped up their rhetoric and threats, raising fears of an all-out war.

In a meeting with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant in Washington, his US counterpart Lloyd Austin said that “another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war, with dire consequences for the Middle East.”

Galant responded that Israel prefers diplomacy, but is prepared for anything. “We don’t want war, but we are preparing for any situation,” he said.

Thousands of people cannot return home

More than 60,000 Israelis are still unable to return to their homes since residents of locations up to five kilometers from the border were evacuated following Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel on October 7. At least 25 Israelis, civilians and soldiers, have been killed in the attacks launched from Lebanon.

Across the border, thousands of southern Lebanon residents have also been displaced, and about 400 people have been killed. Most were Hezbollah members, but at least 50 civilians were also among the dead.

Hezbollah has an arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of hitting anywhere in Israel. Israel, for its part, has warned that it could push Lebanon into the “Stone Age” if diplomacy fails.

In the first months of the war against Hamas, Hezbollah’s strategy was aimed at supporting the organization and making the cessation of hostilities conditional on the cessation of fighting in the Gaza Strip.

“Hezbollah intervened because of Iran’s strategy of joining forces around Israel’s borders,” said Harel Chorev, a historian and expert on Palestinian affairs at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.

“Hezbollah is saying a very simple thing: As long as they fight in the Gaza Strip, we will harass them and continue this war on their northern border,” he explained.

Israel may opt for preemptive strike

The recent bombings come after a long period of relative peace, punctuated only by a few brief incidents. The last open conflict in the region was a month-long war in 2006, which ended with a UN Security Council resolution. Now, however, mediation efforts by US envoy Amos Hochstein have failed, although both sides have indicated they do not want a full-blown war.

“Israel wants to make sure that Hezbollah does not carry out any further incidents like the one on October 7,” says Chorev. Some analysts believe Israel may opt for a preemptive strike against Hezbollah to drive the terrorist group out of the border region.

“In Israel, the majority support a war against Hezbollah, to destroy it in a way that prevents it from carrying out its intentions to invade northern Israel, capture Israeli settlements and take hostages. According to any poll, this is the dominant view. Regardless of the price we will have to pay, we must strike them now,” says Chorev.

Despite living just outside the official evacuation zone, Yehudai, his wife, two children and the family dog ​​left in October after the first Hezbollah attacks. In the meantime, they have returned home, but their suitcases are still ready, waiting at the door. Yehudai, who describes himself as a liberal and leftist, does not want war, but he does not see any diplomatic solution either.

No one imagined that this situation would last for nine months, says Yehudai, who has been constantly heeding recent warnings of an imminent all-out war with Hezbollah. “Every night before we go to bed, every morning when we wake up, we think about whether we should stay or leave, because we don’t know what will happen next.”

(ERS/RML)