Iranians have turned their backs on the ayatollah regime with record abstinence

First election after Purdah rebellion

The 41% turnout is the lowest in the Islamic Republic’s history and came after Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nerges Mohammadi called for a boycott and vetoed reformist candidates.

In the absence of definitive data, the big winner of abstinence was Dual electoral appointment-Parliamentary and Assembly of Experts- From last Friday. This was a major concern of the mullahs’ regime in its first appointment in the elections after the September 2022 pro-democracy uprisings in which young Mahsa Amini died at the hands of morality police for not wearing the Islamic veil properly and the socio-economic reality. In the midst of deep discomfort.

41% less participation Which, after temporarily delaying the conclusion of the election on two occasions to cover up the failure, official Iranian news agencies announced this weekend that it was the lowest figure in the election since the birth of the regime. . 45 years – ahead by official news agencies. Abstention was particularly high in the capital Tehran, where only 24% of the census population went to vote., In 2020, when the last parliamentary elections were held, turnout was 42%, already a moderate milestone in the history of the Islamic Republic.

However, the regime celebrates even more Possible victories for conservative and ultra-conservative candidates In Parliament or Islamic Consultative Assembly, a chamber with 290 members And the limited powers of the Mullahs in the theocracy. This is an extreme which should not be surprising given the filtering role played by the Parents Council before the electoral contest. The body, whose task is to review legislation adopted by Parliament – ​​its twelve members are directly appointed by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution – gave the green light to 15,200 candidates out of 49,000 registered for the parliamentary elections. as expected, Liberal and reformist candidates were excluded, The same thing happened four years ago, when the Conservatives took 232 out of 290 seats in Parliament.

The program of the last day 1 was also a selection of this 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, a body whose function is to monitor the actions of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, elect him in the event of a vacancy, or even dismiss him from his position (a thing unprecedented to date). new assembly Will likely be in charge of finding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor,Who is 84 years old and has been the supreme leader for almost thirty-five years.

Unaware of the recorded absence, the President on Saturday Ibrahim Raisi -who managed to re-legitimize his seat – he congratulated himself for the, in his opinion, “massive” participation in a message to the nation, assuring that it was a “A blow to the country’s opponents”According to IRNA news agency. In his speech, the president from 2021 assured that Iran’s enemies “did everything in their power to discourage voting, but participation with faith and hope represents a huge turnout for an inhuman front of arrogance “

perfect storm

If the data presented by state agencies are confirmed, a large part of Iranian society has once again turned its back on a strong regime that is betting on an increasingly hardline stance. The system’s decline in popularity is the result of a combination of several factors that have worsened in recent years.

Political and material elements influence together. on one sideAn economic crisis resulting in skyrocketing inflation, It has been draining citizens’ wallets for years and has already plunged more than a third of the population into extreme poverty in one of the main oil exporters on the planet.

for other, Government’s response to protests That during the years 2022 and 2023 they demanded on the streets of Iranian cities The fall of the mullahs’ autocracy, An urban and youth-based movement that has only had to face push back from the government in the form of repression. According to the calculations of various NGOs, the Iranian authorities’ offensive almost ended. 500 people killed, more than 20,000 arrested and increased reduction in the freedom of the population, especially women. Hundreds of Iranian public figures have condemned the election “farce” and called for abstaining from the double election date; Among them is Nobel Peace Prize winner Nargess Mohammadi – currently in jail – for The boycott is “a moral obligation for Iranians who love freedom and want justice.”

regional instability

But problems for governance are growing beyond the domestic sphere. The Islamic theocracy is going through difficult times on the international stage. The West blamed Tehran for plotting simultaneous military strikes against Israel and the United States across the Middle East since the beginning of the defense forces’ anti-Hamas campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Although the regime insists that its forces do not directly participate in any military operation, the truth is that since it began conflict between israel and hamas

Allies of the Iranian theocracy – appendages of Tehran’s strategy – ranging from Yemeni rebels to the all-powerful Lebanese militia party Hezbollah, to pro-Iranian militias based in Syria and Iraq, are simultaneously striking at Western interests in the region. This escalation has raised fears of a full-scale war across the Middle East. Indications are that they were prepared by the intelligence branch of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, known as J2, which is tasked with advising the President. And others have a mark indicating they were shared with countries in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which includes the US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. A Russian or pro-Russian origin of the “hacking” has also not been ruled out.