- The loss of historical support puts BTC in an advantageous position for another decline.
- The MVRV Long/Short spread showed that the coin’s price could recover later in the cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the realized short-term holder (STH) price, indicating that the price could fall to $61,000 or below $60,000 in the coming days.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s STH strike price was $64,372 and BTC’s strike price was $64,066, according to Glassnode. Also known as the on-chain base value measure, this is the average value of Bitcoin supply STH.
It is worth noting here that the realized price of STH is estimated on the day that each coin was last realized on the chain. Typically, STH are those who have purchased BTC within the last 155 days.
Bitcoin looks like it’s about to crash
When Bitcoin rises above the realized price, the likelihood of a price increase increases. This is because this indicator acts as support for the price of the cryptocurrency. However, a fall below the threshold increases the likelihood of a correction. This has also been evident in previous market cycles.
For example, in 2018, the cryptocurrency fell below the selling price of $11,012. A few months later, the price of the coin dropped to $8,455. In the final days of 2021, with Bitcoin price at $48,962 and above $53,000, the price soon fell to $42,306.
Source: Glassnod
If we go by this historical data, BTC’s value is at risk of undergoing another correction despite falling 7.82% over the past 30 days.
In addition to this, AMBCrypto analyzed the long/short spread between market value and realized value (MVRV). This metric uses the ratio of long-term holders to new money flowing into Bitcoin to identify potential market deviations.
It’s still a bull market!
If MVRV Long/Short increases, it means that new money is entering the foreign exchange market. However, the fall implies the opposite. At the time of publication, this figure had fallen to 21.16%.
This is a sign that BTC has been lacking high levels of capital recently. Therefore, the price of the currency may decline in the short term.
However, this indicator also shows whether the cryptocurrency is in a bearish or bullish phase. Since the value was positive, it means Bitcoin is still in a bull market. So if the price drops to $61,000, the value could be much higher later in the cycle.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stood at 40.87. Here, RSI measures momentum and shows whether it is bullish or bearish. Its value was below 50, which is a sign of bearish momentum.
Source: Santiment
Whether this is real or not, here is the market capitalization of BTC in terms of ETH.
Thus, the bearish forecast for BTC can be confirmed. However, analyst X – Crypto Caesar – predicted that the dip could be a buying opportunity before a new rally begins. He wrote,
“The price realized by a short-term Bitcoin holder typically acts as support in rising markets (see chart). It currently costs $63,900. Historically this has been a good opportunity for BTFD before more bananas arrive. mode.”
This is an automatic translation of our English version.