Is Germany still capable of acting in foreign policy? – DW – 11/09/2024

Germany’s three-party coalition composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Party (FDP) broke down on the same day that Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election. It was a day of global uncertainty regarding international relations.

The timing was not coincidental. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) for inconsistent stances on budgetary and economic issues.

The dispute had an important foreign policy dimension that is directly linked to the US presidential election: Scholz wants to take out more loans to support Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression, as he expects Trump to significantly reduce US aid. Will give or completely shut down Ukraine as the next leader of the White House. Scholz wants to declare a state of emergency in Germany, which would allow him to issue a so-called debt brake enshrined in the German constitution. Lindner did not agree with Scholz’s plan.

broad consensus on foreign policy

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habach and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, both from the Greens Party, expressed regret at the collapse of the alliance at such a delicate moment in international politics. “The investment in Ukraine, the additional billions of dollars that will be required, will also be an investment in our own security,” Baerbock said.

Scholz will continue to rule in a minority government and said he intends to call a vote of confidence in the Bundestag in January, which would force early elections before March. Germany would have to wait approximately six months before a new fully functional and actionable government could be formed.

The main opposition parties, the centre-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), consider it too long.

Her foreign policy spokesman, Johann Wadefull, sent the following statement to DW: “We ask the Chancellor to hold a vote of confidence in the Bundestag next week and call new elections. This is his last chance to show his responsibility for Germany. No, we You may risk being unable to work.

The CDU, which is expected to win the upcoming German general election, has shown willingness to cooperate. “Germany needs a stable government as soon as possible. Therefore, we will be ready to talk about partial co-operation in parliament only after Scholz passes a motion of confidence,” Wadefull said.

Unless early elections are held in Germany, Scholz will have to muster a parliamentary majority on a case-by-case basis, for example, even on foreign policy issues, such as greater support for Ukraine.

“With the help of these votes it should be possible to send a signal to Ukraine and increase German aid,” said Henning Hof of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Hof told DW that he does not see any major difference between the SPD, the Greens and the CDU/CSU bloc on other important international issues, such as the conflict in the Middle East. “This reflects the great consensus that exists in Germany on foreign policy issues. It is also a stabilizing factor in this time of crisis,” he said.

simultaneous global crisis

The international situation appears to be more turbulent than ever: In the United States, an unexpected Trump was elected. The government in Germany, the world’s third-largest economy and one of the most important countries in the European Union (EU), has recently fallen apart. In France, Germany’s closest partner, President Emmanuel Macron has been deeply weakened internally and the country has become extremely polarized. All this is happening against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

“The situation is very serious,” warns Hof. “On the other hand, there is now an opportunity for Europeans to act, to take concrete steps to stand up to themselves against the Trump administration. This will include sending a clear signal that Europe is willing to do more not only for Ukraine, But also for our own safety.”

(RR/DZC)