Kamala Harris vs Trump: What impact will the US election results have on the world?

When US President Joe Biden arrived in Kiev in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, air strike sirens were blaring.

He later recalled, “I felt something… stronger than ever.” “America is a beacon to the world.”

The world is now waiting to see who will take over this so-called beacon after Americans make their decision in the November 5 presidential election.

Will Kamala Harris follow Biden’s statement that “in these volatile times, it is clear that America cannot step back”? Or will Donald Trump’s view that “Americanism, not globalism” should prevail?

We live in a world where America’s global influence is in question.

Regional powers are going their own ways, autocratic regimes are forming their own coalitions, and devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere raise uncomfortable questions about Washington’s role.

But the United States remains important because of its economic and military power and its important role in many alliances.

We consulted some knowledgeable observers to weigh in on Global consequences of this very important election.

“I cannot dismiss these warnings as false,” says Rose Gottemoeller, a former deputy secretary general of NATO.

,Donald Trump is a nightmare for EuropeAnd his threat to withdraw from NATO rings in everyone’s ears.”

Washington’s defense spending is equal to two-thirds of the military budgets of the other 31 NATO members.

outside NATO, The United States spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.

Trump claims to use aggressive behavior to force other NATO countries to meet his spending targets, which is 2% of their GDP; Only 23 member states have achieved this target by 2024.

But his irregular statements are troubling.

If Harris wins, Gottemoeller believes “NATO will definitely be in good hands in Washington.”

But there is a caveat about this. “(Harris) will be willing to continue working with NATO and the EU to achieve victory in Ukraine.” But will not stop putting pressure on Europe (on spending)

But Harris’s White House team will have to govern with the Senate and House of Representatives, which may soon be in Republican hands, and Republicans less willing to support foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts.

According to US lawmakers, there is a growing understanding that no matter who becomes president, there will be increasing pressure on Kiev to find a way out of this war. They are becoming increasingly reluctant to approve huge aid packages.

“No matter what happens, I don’t think NATO should fall apart,” Gottemoeller says. Europe must “step up to lead.”

The next President of the United States will have to operate in a world that faces the greatest risk of great power conflict since the Cold War.

“The United States remains the most important international player in peace and security,” says Comfort Arrow, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group.

But he warns that “Its power to help resolve conflicts has been diminished.”

It is becoming increasingly difficult to end wars. “Deadly conflicts are becoming more complex with the intensification of great power competition and the rise of middle powers,” says Arrow.

Wars like Ukraine attract multiple powers, and wars like Sudan pit regional actors with competing interests, some of whom are more interested in war than peace.

Arrow says that the United States is losing its moral high ground. “Global actors realize that it applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another standard to Israel’s actions in Gaza. “The war in Sudan has been the site of terrible atrocities, but it is treated as a secondary matter.”

He calls Harris’s victory, “Represents continuity with the current administration,

If Trump wins, “he could give Israel even more free rein in Gaza and elsewhere, and he has hinted that he might try to reach an agreement on Ukraine with Moscow rather than with Kiev.”

In the Middle East, the Democratic nominee has repeatedly reiterated Biden’s strong support for Israel’s “right to defend itself.” But he also stressed that “we must stop killing innocent Palestinians.”

Trump has also declared that it is time to “return to peace and stop killing people.” But he is reported to have told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”

The Republican candidate is proud to be a peacemaker. “I will establish peace in the Middle East, and soon,” he promised in an interview with Saudi television Al Arabiya last Sunday.

He promised to extend the 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, but were seen as marginalizing the Palestinians. And ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, Trump has made no secret of his admiration for Russian strongmen like Vladimir Putin.

He has made clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine and wants stronger military and financial support from the United States. “I will get out of there. We have to get out of there,” he stressed at a recent rally.

Instead, Harris said: “I am proud to support Ukraine. “I will continue to support him and work to ensure he wins this war.”

But Arrow worries that, No matter who is elected, things are getting worse in the world.

“The biggest shock to the global economy in decades”This is the view of leading China expert Rana Mitter on Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on all imported Chinese goods.

Imposing higher costs on China and many other trading partners has been one of the most persistent threats in Trump’s “America First” approach.

But Trump also praises his strong personal relationship with President Xi Jinping.

He told the editorial board of wall street journal If Beijing moves to blockade Taiwan it will not have to use military force because Chinese leaders “respect me and know I’m (expletive) crazy.”

But both the Republican and Democratic leaderships are militaristic. they both consider that Beijing is determined to overtake the United States as the most important global power.

But British historian Mitter, who holds the ST Lee Chair in US-Asian relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School, sees some differences.

With Harris, he says, “the relationship will probably evolve linearly from where they are now.”

If Trump wins, it would be a “more fluid scenario.” In Taiwan, for example, Mitter points to Trump’s dilemma over whether he would come forward to defend an island far from the United States.

China’s leaders believe that both Harris and Trump will be tough.

“There is a small group of people in the (Chinese) establishment who consider Harris ‘better than a known opponent.'” Mitter says, “A significant minority sees Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability means better relations with China.” A great deal may happen, although it may seem impossible.”

“The US election has huge consequences not just for its citizens, but for the world because of the grave inevitability of the climate crisis,” says Mary Robinson, former chair of The Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela.

“Every bit of a degree counts.” To avoid the worst effects of climate change And prevent a future in which devastating storms like Milton are commonplace,” says Robinson, who is also the former President of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

But when Hurricanes Milton and Helen wreaked havoc a few weeks ago, Trump ridiculed environmental plans and policies to confront that climate emergency, calling it “one of the biggest scandals ever.”

Many believe he will withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate accord as he did in his first term.

However, Robinson says Trump The momentum that is now gaining strength cannot be stopped.

“It cannot stop America’s energy transition and reduce billions of dollars in green subsidies…nor can it end the relentless non-federal climate movement.”

He also urges Harris, who has not yet finalized her stance, “to step up to show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years and encourage other large emitters to step up.”

He says, “The outcome of the US election is extremely important, because the United States wields unprecedented influence not only through its military and economic power, but also through its ability to lead with moral authority on the world stage. ” Martin Griffiths, an experienced conflict mediator who, until recently, was the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.

If Harris wins, she sees more light. “The Harris presidency represents that hope,” he says. Instead, “a return to a Trump presidency marked by isolationism and unilateralism offers little more than deepening global instability and despair.”

United States also When it comes to the United Nations system, it is the biggest donor. In 2022, it provided a record US$18.1 billion.

In his first term, Trump ended funding from several United Nations agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors rushed to fill the gap left by the US, which is exactly what Trump wanted.

But Griffith highlights growing frustrations in the humanitarian community and beyond, and criticizes the Biden administration’s “hesitation” in the face of the worsening situation in the Middle East.

Aid agency chiefs have repeatedly condemned the attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians on 7 October.

But he has repeatedly called on the United States to do more to end the deep suffering of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon.

Biden and his top officials have repeatedly called for more aid to be sent to Gaza, and at times some has been achieved.

But critics say the help and pressure were never enough.

Griffiths, who sees the United States as indispensable, says, “True leadership will emerge from addressing humanitarian crises with unwavering moral clarity, making the protection of human life the basis of American diplomacy and action on the world stage.”

“In a time of global conflict and uncertainty, The world expects the United States to rise to the challenge of responsible, principled leadership… We demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more.”

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