(CNN) –The Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region is now entering its third month, with dozens of settlements still under its control.
The operation marked the first entry of foreign troops into Russian territory since World War II, embarrassing the Kremlin and showing Kiev supporters and the rest of the world that Ukrainian forces were not always on the defensive.
Nine weeks later, Ukraine’s progress has stalled, with neither side making any significant advances or counterattacks in recent days.
The ending of the game is ambiguous. Analysts believe Kiev is trying to use its initial push as a morale booster and potential bargaining tool, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to downplay the entire incursion and the Russian war machine to counter it. Trying to limit the resources spent by.
According to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC think tank, Ukraine maintains positions around 786 square kilometers in Kursk.
“The Russian advance is happening especially on the sides of our foot,” Dmytro, commander of a Ukrainian battalion inside Kursk, which uses the callsign “Kholod,” meaning cold, told CNN this Wednesday. “They keep trying to move forward, but progress is slow; At some point they manage to get to a street in the town. But it goes both ways: we also fight and push them back.”
Ukraine’s main base is around the Russian town of Sudza, and its forces are attempting to establish a second base around the village of Veselo. Ukraine has not disclosed how many troops it has sent to the region.
Russia has deployed a significantly larger number of troops to defend and counter-attack at Kursk – an estimated 40,000 – but analyst Mark Galeotti described the initial force as “built out of what they could find”, in which Russia Initially soldiers and reservists were used in the raids.
“It’s the equivalent of digging up the sofa cushions to find some loose change,” Galeotti, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, told CNN.
Moscow has since deployed more experienced forces, but not as many resources as Russian citizens in Kursk would want.
As fighting continues in the region, Russian officials say more than 100,000 civilians have been displaced, while many others remain behind the Ukrainian border.
“Over time, the Kursk operation has become somewhat normalized,” Galeotti said. “We should not assume that the Russians have accepted this… I think Putin has managed to postpone the trial, but I don’t think he has abandoned it completely.”
Russia is trying to avoid diverting resources from the front line of its massive invasion of Ukraine to fight at Kursk.
Although the raid was initially a shock to both the government and ordinary Russians, “the Kremlin downplayed it”, according to John Lough, a research associate at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme. “The strategy is to distract the population from what happened, which is undoubtedly a great shame, and create the impression that it is not serious.”
Putin’s government has called it an “intrusion” and even downplayed the retaliatory strike as an “anti-terrorism mission.”
A Russian military blogger made a harsh generalization, saying: “The majority of Russians are already accustomed to the fighting near Kursk… people who have nothing to do with what is happening in the Kursk area “They are very slowly becoming interested in what is happening.”
According to the Ukrainian commander, the front lines are barely moving, but the fighting is apparently fierce, with the Russian military deploying numerous drones, cannon artillery and aerial bombers.
The commander of the Ukrainian “Kholod” battalion declared, “If they think we have soldiers there they don’t hesitate to bomb the trees.” He claims that Russia has now sent a powerful group of troops and combat brigades to where his unit is fighting in Kursk, and argues that the Russian counter-offensive was slowed by Ukrainian attacks with drones and landmines.
According to analysts, the raid on Kursk likely had multiple objectives, including delivering a historic victory to Ukraine.
“The goal was to demonstrate to Ukraine’s Western allies that the Russians are weak and that there are limits to their ability to deploy combat power,” Lough said.
It was also a morale booster for the Ukrainians. Several soldiers who spoke to CNN in September said that despite the casualties and difficulty of the operation, it was worth fighting to give Russia a taste of its own medicine.
However, Ukraine’s goal of diverting troops from the eastern front line towards Kursk has so far failed.
However according to experts, Kursk may remain a bargaining chip for future negotiations.
“By seizing this area, they immediately dismissed the possibility of both the Russians and the Western allies saying, ‘Now is the time to stop. Let’s make a ceasefire,'” Luff said.
Meanwhile, the main focus of the war remains on Ukraine’s front in the eastern region of Donbass, where its troops are fighting to retain control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk.
Rather than focus resources on liberating its own territory, Russian forces have expanded their attacks on multiple fronts in Ukraine, including the key regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia.
“Advancing as much as possible in Donbass, regardless of losses, appears to be a very high priority for the Kremlin,” Loff said. “There’s a kind of window that’s going to close as you get to this time of year when the roads turn to mud.”
Russia’s daily attacks against Ukraine continued this Thursday, with multiple deaths in the Odessa, Kherson and Donetsk regions.