Lebanon, a broken future with an eye on the past: echoes of an unattainable ceasefire

ceasefire proposal

Amar still does not believe that there will be a ceasefire. “It will be even more difficult later, when all the displaced people return to their homes and You will find that your neighborhood and your life have been reduced to rubble.

“Comedian concludes. However, according to several international agencies this Monday israel security cabinet The Americans will meet in Tel Aviv this Tuesday to approve the ceasefire proposal. diaries Ynet And Haaretz He anticipated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have accepted the proposal. If confirmed, it comes a day after the visit to Beirut High Representative of the European Union for foreign affairs, josep borrellFrom there he assured: “We see only one way forward: an immediate ceasefire and the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701. An immediate and simultaneous ceasefire by all parties.”

,We are seeing a similar scenario to what happened in the Gaza Strip.Talks were held, talks were held and it was said that a ceasefire was practically imminent and in the end a ceasefire never comes,” explains a skeptic. Ignacio Alvarez-OsorioProfessor of Arab and Islamic Studies at the Complutense University of Madrid. The analyst argues that Israel still has very specific objectives in Lebanon and is not going to give up on them until it achieves them. He explains that if a ceasefire happens, it would be a gift to the outgoing President. Joe Biden And the next tenant of the White House couldn’t make it profitable, Donald Trump,

Israeli armed forces have carried out killings in less than two months top hezbollah leader And his estate Dahiye on the outskirts of Beirut has been destroyed. “Israel set unattainable conditions for Hezbollah and thus blamed the Shia organization for agreeing to sign the ceasefire”He explains. “Tel Aviv does not want to show that it is the party that does not want a ceasefire and thus has an excuse to continue the war indefinitely”Alvarez-Osorio says.

Israel, in order to stop its offensive, demands Hezbollah’s withdrawal from some points north of the Litani River.Furthermore, it is intended to ensure that countries such as the United States or France monitor the United Nations Interim Force for Lebanon (UNIFIL). Shiite militias unable to resupply rockets and other weapons Land, air or sea. Defense Ministry sources assured that this could include cessation of hostilities 60-day withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from southern Lebanon,

Joe Biden administration’s mediator between Israel and Lebanon Amos HochsteinWas visiting Israel over the weekend, after visiting both countries, To promote a ceasefire. Experts recall that initially the conditions were negotiated which changed according to the events on the ground. Tel Aviv has always called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the Litani River. and the application of Resolution 1701, but conditions have changed in the last months of the conflict. The killing of key Hezbollah leaders today means that the organization is in a weak position to impose conditions. “This allows Israel to move forward with its demands such as the disarmament of Hezbollah, something that is unacceptable because it would mean its irrelevance in both the military and political spheres”Says the professor of Arab and Islamic studies.

The Lebanon-based militia is under considerable pressure domestically and internationally. Conditions imposed by Netanyahu effect on The DNA of the organization and its sense of existence. He concluded, “Hezbollah emerged to counter the Israeli occupation and it is not so easy for it to give up its identity, as this would threaten its own future within Lebanon.”

Is the same scenario as in 2006 repeated?

The history of the region suggests that this is not Israel’s last war in Lebanon. The Hebrew Army entered the south of the Land of the Cedars in 1978, in 2000, in 2006 and now in 2024. “Netanyahu has demonstrated his willingness to keep multiple battle fronts open”

Senior researcher with the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB) and expert in the Middle East, global geopolitics and security says, Pere VilanovaHe assures that in 2006 it looked like a very controlled infiltration: “They lasted 33 days and many soldiers had to leave.” It’s back this year “Neutralize Hezbollah, but there is another situation on the ground”He adds. The big difference is that in 2006 you could see Israeli soldiers coming in and going out “To show that they can do it if they want.”,

Álvarez-Osorio focuses on the impact: “18 years ago it was much more limited and Hezbollah managed to sell it as a defeat for Israel and a victory that caused great damage to the enemy,” he analyzed. However, Israel’s achievement on this occasion is to eliminate the entire leadership of the Shia organization and, in addition, to destroy a large part of its military capability. It’s hard for Lebanese militias to accept ceasefire terms because they can’t “Declare no victory”,

“Readiness” Trump’s election could lead to a ceasefire. “He said he doesn’t want war”However, he would be a good ally for Netanyahu to implement a new regional reality, the professor recalls. “I am clear that Israel will not stop its offensive against Gaza or Lebanon and this of course depends on its position of strength,” he explained. Tel Aviv wants to reduce Hezbollah’s influence on the Lebanese political scene. He wants to turn him into an irrelevant actor without decision-making ability in future governments of the country.

Lebanon: political instability and lack of governance

On the other hand, the Lebanese population is forced to live with constant uncertainty. The civil war began on April 27, 1975, which lasted until 1990, when Christian activists attacked a bus carrying Palestinian refugees, killing 27 people. The small country in the Middle East is built on a diverse and fragmented identity which has led to the enforced presence of all communities in state institutions. Therefore, a multi-party system is governed by a confessional framework in which positions are distributed proportionally among religious communities. The last census carried out corresponds to 1932, when Maronite Christians were the majority in the country. “The demographic reality has certainly changed,” Explains the expert in the Middle East, global geopolitics and security, Pere VilanovaToday, the President must be a Maronite Christian and the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim.

“Lebanon’s problem is that the current political instability and lack of governance has weakened a country that used to function normally and democratically.”Vilanova says. Remember that the Lebanese pound was one of the most stable currencies in the world and has lost more than 98% of its value against the US dollar since 2019. “That time of prosperity and institutional balance is far from over. They had open and competitive elections; although each citizen knew very well who he had to vote for, he saw it as a kind of group loyalty as a guarantee of security. Lived in form,” explains. Senior Researcher at CIDOB.

In recent decades, while society has undergone socio-political metamorphoses, Hezbollah has been gaining strength. Militias have two aspects: one military and one political. ,This is not a liberation movement because Lebanon has already been liberatedRather, it is an organized actor that fights against the Israeli threat and acts with loyalty to the institutions of the Lebanese state,” Vilanova argues. He recalls that the organization has strong social support because it has maintained its existence with its network of support for the most disadvantaged.

In 2018, Lebanese public debt reached 148%, making it one of the most indebted countries in the worldIn addition, the population has faced daily and scheduled power cuts by the government. There are areas that are already facing water scarcity, which may spread across the region in the next decade due to increased water consumption for households and irrigation activities. Today, there are not enough mechanisms to conserve and treat water, which will be a challenge. The explosion in the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020, which killed 218 people and left more than 7,500 injured and missing, still remains in the collective memory. ,Lebanon is a country that has historically had very bad luck as it has experienced a lot of bad things, but almost never through its own fault.

He assured. Hospitals in Lebanon were in a state of survival due to lack of power supply and medicines.

Currently, society remains polarized into two segments: pro-West and pro-regional. Two opposing viewpoints. March 8 Coalition and March 14 Bloc do not agree. “There is no minimal consensus on who should preside over the country,” the UCM professor concluded. While unemployment, poverty and inflation have only gotten worse. Many Lebanese have fled, but others have remained and are struggling to improve the situation and restore normalcy“The Lebanese activist says. “It’s a beautiful country because of its people and many of us don’t want to leave it,” Al Sukhan concluded.

He concluded, “I believe very much in Lebanese resilience and I understand their anger very well because everything happens to them and almost everything is bad.” ,“We don’t want to be flexible, we want to be normal.”Leaves the girl.