Lebanon: a slow offensive without clear objectives international

Last Tuesday, Israeli media broadcast a video of its troops raising the national flag inside Lebanese territory for the first time since the beginning of the ground incursion Pleasure trip The Iranians (walk), in front of (Israeli agricultural cooperative) Avivim,” one of them is heard saying. In the recording you can see the wreckage of the Iranian Garden, a kind of propaganda amusement park in Maroun al Ras, which was inaugurated in 2010 by then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and which includes a figure of Qassem Soleimani (powerful Iranian general) Was. Killed by the CIA and Mossad in 2020) pointed at the enemy, Israel, from a height, which can be seen clearly because it is so close. Geolocation of the video shows that soldiers penetrated 700 meters into Lebanese soil, about 200 meters from the first house in the city. Instead, Energy Minister Eli Cohen announced that troops had “occupied” Maroun al Ras (very symbolic for the Israelis’ impotence against Hezbollah in the 2006 war) and “destroyed the houses from which they Launched anti-tank attacks against Israel.” citizen.

It is impossible to know whether this is true or not. On-the-ground information about what is happening in the nearly deserted battle zone comes from Hezbollah media, the Israeli army, and Israeli military correspondents involved. But the debate over the flag-raising and capture of the city reflects Israel’s desire to present to the public its achievements in the invasion and has sparked debate among experts over whether this was due to a decision or an inability to gradually Moving forward, given the armed resistance. What you are getting.

Andreas Craig sees “a bit of both”. He is an analyst of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa and an associate professor at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, and considers it “astonishing” that the Israeli armed forces have been “incapacitated” in approximately two weeks. Taking Hezbollah’s main strongholds right next to the border,” even just half a kilometer from the Blue Line, the internationally recognized dividing line monitored by UN troops.

The army, which has also tried to penetrate from the south-west, already has four divisions deployed (including the first reserve), estimated at around 15,000 troops. So far, it has advanced hundreds of meters through centers in Odesseh, Maroun al Ras and Yarun, where images show a pattern of destruction similar to Gaza.

Craig says, “Nobody expected a quick capture of the area, because the terrain does not allow it,” but Israeli forces “have only managed to capture two small villages between the Mediterranean Sea and the Golan.” This area with green peaks is as difficult for the movement of armored vehicles as it is ideal for the ambushes that the militiamen are setting: a mix of surprise attacks for hours, preventing even the evacuation of the wounded. . This is where the overwhelming air and technological superiority that Israel deploys – with dozens of daily bombardments – over other parts of Lebanon, Gaza, Syria or Yemen.

For Craig, it is more a “war of attrition” being fought. That means, a lot of casualties, less area. Israel claims to have killed 450 Hezbollah militants (it is not disclosing the number) and lost eight soldiers. The number was much higher in the first two days, but there have been no casualties since then. “He is proceeding with extreme caution, because he understands that Hezbollah’s will to fight has not broken and he is prioritizing the defense of its forces.” As the mothers who demonstrated in the nineties calling for a withdrawal from southern Lebanon know, the return of soldiers in coffins could easily undermine the majority of social support that the invasion enjoys today.

David Wood, Senior Lebanon Analyst think tank The International Crisis Group recalls that Israeli troops are advancing more slowly than in the 2006 war, which lasted 34 days, “which shows that despite suffering significant military setbacks, Hezbollah still has the fighting capacity.” Is.” Israel has been forced to make a tactical withdrawal (which Hezbollah celebrates in its communications), without achieving objectives in an area of ​​great strategic value.

Wood also remembers an aspect that is often forgotten. Hezbollah has never been hit so hard since its birth in the 1980s, but in 2024 it has a structure, infrastructure and combat training in Syria that it lacked in the 2006 war, with “fewer men and armaments.” With” managed to claim victory. , “It also has a network of tunnels, the size of which is unknown, and long-range missiles, which it may later decide to use.”

The debate over how much Israeli progress is impotence and how much is alternative is compounded by the fog surrounding its true intentions. At the beginning of the ground campaign, the army spoke of a “limited, local and selective infiltration”, with no intention of reaching Beirut or entering southern cities. The objective: to drive Hezbollah away from the border and weaken its capabilities so that 60,000 people evacuated from Israel’s border cities could return to their homes. Some people were already seen returning home these days after the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, which ends on the 23rd.

decapitate hezbollah

But the excitement over Hezbollah’s decapitation (and especially the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah) has created a “now or never” feeling in Israel that goes further. Now is the time to leverage the military momentum and political context to shift the balance of forces with Iran. The United States’ carte blanche specifically allows this, at least until January 20, when the winner of next month’s elections: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will take office.

The President of the United States, Joe Biden, is not only defending the land incursion but also barely promoting the proposed 21-day ceasefire with France. In addition to continuing to send billions of dollars in arms to Israel and diplomatically defending it over the invasion of Gaza and now Lebanon, he has adopted a rhetoric of closed support that he had not used months earlier.

There is a sentiment pervasive in the Israeli political and military establishment that any victory today will mean famine tomorrow if it is not accompanied by the establishment of a “security strip” south of the Litani River, as was maintained between 1982 and 2000. Yossi Yehoshua, Israeli newspaper military commentator Yedioth Ahronoth, This Wednesday predicted that the operation “will last for a few more weeks, after which Israel can cautiously begin to allow residents to return to their homes, with an agreement that would not resemble UN Resolution 1701, but would allow southern Lebanon ” population. In other words, create a kind of safe zone “Ensuring its compliance beyond the border with Israel.”

One of the problems is that “appetite is awakened by eating”, as Ghassan Salame, former Lebanese minister and UN negotiator in Iraq and Libya, explained in an interview published in a Lebanese newspaper this Thursday. L’Orient Le Jour. “The goal initially may simply be to reduce Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal as much as possible, especially the 600 to 700 long-range missiles that the Israelis believe they have, and the residents of the Upper Galilee To be able to bring back. But if the strength of resistance in Lebanon is greatly diminished, if Arab passivity in the face of the campaign remains the same as it has been for the past three weeks, and international pressure remains negligible, then it may be that the Israelis will become emboldened. and “may be tempted to dominate the southern part of Lebanon in some way (…) or turn its military achievements into long-term political gains.”

This week’s events and statements also point in this direction. On the one hand, there were, in the words of the UN mission, in some cases “deliberate” attacks over three consecutive days on Blue Helmets, whose withdrawal to a distance of five kilometers from the border has been requested by Israeli officials after years of calling them unprovoked. This Friday a Blue Helmet was hit by a bullet and another location was heavily damaged by a bomb nearby. He is the fifth injured in 72 hours. On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a “speech to the Lebanese people” urged them to rise up against Hezbollah. It is, at its core, a call for regime change that goes beyond the formal objectives of the campaign.