Lebanon: Israel adamant on repeating its mistakes. international

Israel’s Operation Northern Arrow, which began a few weeks ago, has, as expected, reached its ground phase. From there, multiple reference points can be established to track what happens on the ground.

It’s not an answer to anything or anyone, But another step in a plan devised by the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu to accomplish the task he has imposed upon himself as a result of his messianic ideology. Although the warmongering tendencies dominating the regional agenda lead them to pretend that they are acting in defense of the Palestinian cause (which is not even Hamas’s), both Hezbollah and Iran have provided ample evidence that they do not want to escalate the conflict. Do not want to increase due to fear of facing unbearable punishment. Netanyahu did not even wait for Tehran to react after the assassination of Ismail Haniya or for Hezbollah to do the same for Hassan Nasrallah; The prolongation and expansion of the conflict serves their strategy to remain in power. And the surge in popularity resulting from the aforementioned operation may prompt him to call further elections to confirm his leadership (and avoid justice).

This is a full-fledged invasion and, therefore, a further violation of international law. A violation that illustrates both contempt for the rules by the Lebanese government – ​​which is ordering the withdrawal of its troops to avoid confrontation with the invading forces (of what use is its army then?) – and by Tel Aviv, whose He has been violating with impunity for decades. Netanyahu and his people know that even then they will never stop relying on American support, as shown by the approval of $8.7 billion of military aid and their military support in the region, not to protect the Gazans or the Lebanese. But rather to block them. Lebanese ports, prevent militias from receiving support, and neutralize missiles launched in the direction of Israel.

It has been presented as a “limited military operation”. Essentially recalling the “special military operation” initiated by Putin in Ukraine. A formulation that is at odds with the reality of Gaza, where a year after the genocide began there is no exit strategy in sight. An argument that was already used in 1982, when Israeli troops entered Lebanon, beginning an occupation that lasted until 2000. It doesn’t matter how much military superiority it has and it doesn’t matter how much the Shia militias were affected after the last attacks, the destruction of Hezbollah. Out of your reach. Plans managed by Tel Aviv believe that the operation will be successful if it manages to kill about 3,000 fighters and leave behind another 12,000 wounded, while its own casualties will be in the range of 800 soldiers. It remains to be seen what Hezbollah’s plans are.

Netanyahu wants to create a new regional order to his liking, Taking advantage of the international situation – amid the election campaign in Washington, Brussels disintegrated and Arab governments as impotent as ever – to redraw the map of the Middle East. He dreams of achieving complete domination over historical Palestine, – promoting the death and exodus of Palestinians, – redrawing the map of Lebanon, – it is very likely that he will decide to re-occupy the south of the country. Will – neutralize the Syrian regime, – the assassination attempt on Maher al-Assad is a clear signal, while they believe that the Golan Heights are definitely theirs – and prevent Iran from continuing to threaten their security , whether with access to nuclear weapons or by managing its various regional pawns.

Who will stop it?