Markets: Argentine bonds rose again, and country risk approached 1,000 points for the first time in five years

sovereign bonds Argentina continued its positive streak on Tuesday, showing average growth of 2.6% globally with New York law, which are listed on Wall Street. In accordance with this positive movement, country risk JP Morgan was down 64 basis points at 5:15 p.m. 1044 units, minimum since August 12, 2019 (877 basis points), more than five years ago.

It should be remembered that in August of the same year the prices of Argentine shares collapsed (-50% on average in dollars) and government securities in dollars (-30% on average) after the PASO of August 11, in which they consecrated the formula of Alberto Fernandez and Christina Kirchner as the favorites in the presidential election.

It was on August 13, 2019 that country risk catapulted to 1,741 basis points.

Additionally, country risk on Tuesday was below the previous low of 1,101 basis points on September 10, 2020. Country risk was then halved with the issuance of Globales and Bonares bonds following sovereign restructuring.

Thus, dollar bonds renewed their highest prices: Global 2029 (GD29) was trading at $70, while The Global Vision 2030 (GD30) reached $65.63.. On Bonares’ side (in accordance with Argentine law) the maturity date is 2030. (AL30) was agreed upon at US$60.and Bonar 2029 (AL29) was priced at $64.41.

Analysts Personal portfolio investments They noted that since mid-September the Central Bank has purchased “$1.187 million” on the foreign exchange market. As a result, net reserves increased from approximately -$7.914 million as of September 16 to -$6.613 million as of yesterday. Meanwhile, due to money laundering, BCRA’s liquidity increased from US$9,891 million to US$11,517 million over the same period, even though the money was transferred to BONY (Bank of New York) for guarantee payment of January coupons.

On the other hand, Portfolio Personal considered that “good news regarding the needs of the 2025 financial program became known on Friday, during a holiday in Argentina. The IMF has confirmed that from November 1 it will reduce the rate from 100 to 2025.” Interest on loans is 60 basis points. In addition, the premiums on those loans that are issued for a period of more than three years and exceed the country’s IMF quota by 300% will be reduced from 100 to 75 basis points. Argentina will benefit from both measures. Thus, the November interest payment will decrease by approximately $116 million from $808 million to $692 million. Meanwhile, next year’s collections will decrease by approximately $450 million from $3.132 million to $2.682 million.”

Experts Rava Stock Market They considered that “Argentina appears to be close to returning to international markets and avoiding a possible default, as companies are now seen receiving international funding at an average rate of 8%, but interest from international funds in sovereign bonds is also growing.” “.

Martin MazzaDirector of MM Investments, highlighted the good point of fixed income in Argentina, both at the sovereign and corporate level, and explained that “the new bonds Boncup They debuted on the secondary market with notable growth. The notes due October 2025 closed at a monthly effective rate (TEM) of 3.6% and December 2025 at 3.57%. Both registered price increases of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively from their initial release where rates stood at 3.9% and 3.89%. In addition, there was a noticeable compression of the curve Lecapswhich reflects the interest and liquidity in this market segment.”

“Today is a tender for Gennayawhere a negotiable obligation in MEP dollars with a maturity of 48 months will be offered. The issue, with semi-annual interest payments and a minimum subscription amount of US$50, aims to raise US$30 million, with an option to raise up to US$80 million. “This type of issuance reflects the growing dynamism of the corporate fixed income market in Argentina, where companies are taking advantage of the favorable context to raise funds, improve their debt profile and reduce financing costs,” Mazza added.

On the other hand, Mazza recalled that “a recent case is Edenorwhich, after failing to place $400 million to $750 million worth of negotiable obligations on the international market, is currently exploring local alternatives to achieve a successful issue. “This type of movement is increasingly common among the country’s large companies as they seek to adapt to financial market conditions.”

Juan Manuel FrancoSBS group chief economist, noted that “from now on and over the next few weeks it will be important to keep a close eye on high-frequency inflation data, as well as private dollar deposits, which fell by US$948 million over seven rounds in October.” , although total reserves still exceed US$30.4 billion.”