(CNN)- Russia watches US policy like a hawk.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave the same message to journalists in Kiev last week, responding to a question about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. “It depends on the elections in the United States,” he said.
If elected, Kamala Harris is expected to largely continue the policies of the Biden administration, which has supported Ukraine despite some sticking points such as the use of Western weapons to strike deep into Russia.
In a completely different stance, Donald Trump indicated he would end his support for the Kiev war effort, saying he could solve the war “in a day.” The terms of the peace plan proposed by his vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, are strikingly similar to Putin’s wish list.
Analysts say American politics is at a crossroads, but it will not necessarily mark a turning point in peace talks.
That’s because there’s nothing to say that Russia is ready to come to the negotiating table, regardless of who ends up in the White House.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hold a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeul and Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun during the 2+2 meeting at the State Department in Washington, DC, on October 15, 2017. 31.
“What (Trump) thinks he can do, what influence he has, it’s unclear at this point, but I don’t think it will be a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow and expert on Russian foreign policy. ” Council on Foreign Relations.
However, experts say a reduction in US aid spending could very well translate into changes on the battlefield.
Graham told CNN that as with any potential president, Putin would try to exploit political dysfunction in the United States as well as “rifts in Western unity.”
Those cracks could manifest in, among other factors, a reduction in US aid by the Trump administration and less involvement in NATO or a divided US Congress. Financial pressures on European allies also play a role, as does divisions in NATO, with pro-Russian leaders in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.
Graham said, “Without Western unity, without a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they are trying to accomplish… Putin has no control over what he is doing in Ukraine right now.” But there’s no reason to reconsider.”
According to experts, the magnitude of the war is too great for a simple negotiation between Moscow and Kiev, and they believe it is a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.
For Putin, “Ukraine is simply a means to an end, and the end is to further limit American influence in international affairs,” said John Lough, a research associate in the Russia and Eurasia program at the London think tank Chatham House.
“When (Trump’s) advisers explain to you what’s really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in maintaining Russia’s ability to continue this war… you suddenly feel very strongly Can feel it’s not so good.” Putin,” Lauf said, adding that Beijing would view any concessions as “another sign of American weakness.”
This contrasts with Trump’s tough rhetoric about the threat posed by China.
Numbers in Ukraine are already low and Putin appears willing to accept large casualties. According to NATO, more than 600,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.
“The enemy is increasing the number of its troops to expel the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region at any cost,” said Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, which is fighting Ukraine’s surprise attack across the border. “The main element of Russia in this war is the number of its troops: it is about forceful attacks and offensive actions. They do this all over the front.
In the Zaporizhia region of Ukraine, another commander of the Ukrainian security service said: “By sending large numbers of personnel into battle as cannon fodder, they are trying to gain a foothold in the gray areas of the front.” The officer, who asked to be identified only by his call sign “Bankir,” meaning accountant, told CNN that a complex system of fortifications in Zaporizhia is helping Ukraine defend the front line.
But Kiev knows this is not enough. This Wednesday, Ukraine’s parliament voted to extend martial law and conscription for another 90 days. The National Security Council announced plans to call up 160,000 more people.
Ukrainian military personnel who spoke to CNN said Russia also has other advantages, such as countless drones, expensive aircraft and more vehicles that allow it to fight during muddy autumn and winter.
The army said Ukraine needed support for both its infantry and equipment chests.
“We have ammunition, but as the gunmen say, it is never enough,” said Vitaly Milovidov, a spokesman for the National Guard’s 15th Brigade. Who are fighting in the eastern Donetsk region, where the Russian army is continuously gaining ground.
If a potential Trump administration cuts US aid, Ukraine could find itself increasingly left behind.
European countries are scrambling to increase production of war materials for Ukraine to avoid a shock if US support wanes.
But even if US policy continues on the current trajectory, Kiev’s Western allies do not appear to be committed to the level of resources needed to achieve significant gains on the battlefield.
“I think this will continue, possibly at less intensity, but for a longer period of time,” Chatham House’s Lough said. “A Harris administration certainly would not betray the Ukrainians, but it would really test their resolve and willingness to keep fighting this war of attrition.”
That is why the aim of Putin’s strategy also seems to be to demoralize the people of Ukraine.
Russia repeatedly attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure. It also caused damage to Ukraine’s power grid, adding to the problems of Ukrainian citizens, who would face winter shortages of heat and water.
Analysts say that the Ukrainian population is certainly tired, but does not seem ready to settle down in any way. After the mass killings of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian custody, and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, they know the brutal realities of Russian occupation.
Zelensky, for his part, continues to seek support from both parties. “If Trump wants to force Ukraine to drop everything and then make a deal with Russia, I don’t think that’s possible,” he said Thursday.