North Korea, Russia’s arms supplier against Ukraine? – DW – 06/21/2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang and his talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un showed, above all, that relations between Russia and North Korea are closer than they have been for decades.

According to the Kremlin chief, Putin and Kim announced a new defense agreement during the visit that provides for “mutual support in the event of aggression against one of the parties.”

According to several media reports, North Korea has also provided Russia with artillery shells and, according to at least some US and Ukrainian sources, ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. In return, Russia has apparently offered assistance in the form of military and satellite technology.

Both sides denied these reports. If true, it would violate the UN arms embargo against North Korea.

South Korea: Almost five million projectiles on their way to Russia

Last week, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said his country had discovered 10,000 shipping containers en route from North Korea to Russia. These could contain up to 4.8 million artillery shells.

In an interview with the American media company BloombergWonsik said Putin would likely order more grenades during his visit to Pyongyang. A previous US Secret Service report said North Korea had supplied Russia with “at least three million” grenades.

If these deliveries are confirmed, it would be a huge support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine complain of a constant shortage of grenades, which has made artillery attacks difficult.

In an interview with DW’s Russian editorial team, Austrian military expert Wolfgang Richter said Kiev’s European allies were unable to deliver even one million projectiles to Ukraine within a self-imposed one-year deadline.

“In the end, after a year, only half was delivered; the rest should arrive later this year,” he said. In contrast, Richter estimates that North Korea could have supplied Russia with up to three million artillery shells. “It may not decide the war, but it is a significant delivery.”

The United States and Ukraine also say Russian military forces used North Korean missiles. In January, the United States accused Moscow of using North Korean short-range ballistic missiles to attack targets in Ukraine. According to US Homeland Security spokesman John Kirby, these missiles have a range of about 900 kilometers.

The official did not provide further details about the type of missiles used. However, a graphic distributed by the White House showed short-range ballistic missiles of the KN-23 and KN-25 types. Ukraine confirmed the information, saying it examined the remains of more than 20 North Korean missiles fired on Ukrainian territory.

Last month, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) declassified a report that allegedly contained photographic evidence of North Korean missiles shot down over Ukraine.

According to military expert Richter, however, it has not been conclusively proven that North Korea has delivered missiles to Russia. But “it is conceivable” that some old missile systems have fallen into Ukraine.

North Korea, with its own interests

For its part, Pyongyang links its support for Russia with its specific interests: developing new advanced weapons systems. “In this way, the North Koreans can benefit from Russian missile technology,” Richter said.

But North Korea will be careful not to completely deplete its stockpile in favor of Russia. “Ultimately, you want to be prepared for a conflict on the Korean Peninsula,” Richter said, referring to North Korea’s tensions with South Korea, Japan and the United States.

Given that Russia is currently expanding its arms production, it is difficult to determine how important North Korean weapons are to the Kremlin. But it appears that Russian forces on the front have taken the initiative and pushed Ukrainian forces back step by step over the past few months.

In addition, observers suspect that North Korea supports Moscow even outside the battlefield. There are reports that it is sending workers to Russia and Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine to replace those who were recruited for the military there.

And at the diplomatic level the Pyongyang regime is on Russia’s side. It openly supports the invasion of Ukraine, and is the third country, after Russia and Syria, to recognise the independence of the Ukrainian separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Moving closer to Russia and away from China?

Now Kim’s loyalty to Putin appears to be paying off. Russia not only promised to defend North Korea in the event of “aggression,” but would also provide the energy and know-how to expand the country’s economy and military arsenal. Pyongyang’s ties with Moscow may already surpass those with China, its traditional ally and patron.

Analysts believe Kim has been emboldened by the support of Russia, which is currently at odds with South Korea.

“We have noticed that North Korea’s behavior has changed recently and has become more aggressive,” Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on relations between North Korea and Russia at the Korea Institute for Unification, told DW National in Seoul. “They may see this as an opportunity to take military action against the South,” Hyun said.

However, a rapprochement with Russia could also cause Kim to lose support in Beijing, Richter said. “I’m not sure China is really happy with this development,” he said. “It’s as if Beijing is telling Moscow not to go too far and violate nonproliferation rules.”

(CP/RML)