OCU just published its latest study on olive oil. You have bad news, but the good news is sensational.

The market is on edge until the unknowns regarding the next harvest become clearer. Then everything will go very quickly

No matter how many offers are made, the price of olive oil will not stop rising until 2024. These are the findings of the latest study by the Consumer and User Organization. At the same time, according to their forecasts, it is possible that this growth (albeit more moderate) will continue until the summer.

It’s not all bad news, however. Starting in June, if all goes well, the situation could turn 180 degrees.

The price continues to rise… Since December, according to OCU, prices have continued to rise in at least six major supermarket chains (Alcampo, Carrefour, Condis, Dia, El Corte Inglés, Eroski and Mercadona). The increase ranges from 7% for white EVOO brand to 23% for EVOO brand.

In other categories and qualities, the price of private label soft olive oil increased by 21%.

…although not as much as it might seem. In fact, the figure of 23% is somewhat overestimated, since, as documented by the OCU, major brands pursued a fairly aggressive supply policy at Christmas. This prevents accurate comparison. If we had taken the pre-Christmas price as a guide, the floods would not have been so severe.

Key data. According to OCU analysts, the key fact is that “the price difference between networks has decreased very significantly, which indicates price stabilization.” This is important because it tells us about the market as a whole.

In fact, the Organization sees this quite clearly and states that the price “should soon go down in anticipation of improved olive production due to the recent rains, as recognized by professionals in the olive sector.”

Indeed, the sector is in turmoil. The situation is complicated. On the one hand, the March rains give us optimism; On the other hand, it still cannot be ruled out that we will be faced with another extreme weather event that destroys crops. And if this would be a problem in any year, then in the current situation (two failed campaigns behind us) everything is difficult.

Ultimately, this is the key: the sector is not in its best moment. Deoleo, for example, is left with 34.3 million euros in 2023, and its main shareholders cannot find someone to sell it to. We are talking about the largest oil company in the world (owner of brands such as Carbonell, Hojiblanca or Bertolli).

Thus, the very thought of summer arriving with too much oil in the refineries (leading to a very rapid drop in prices) makes everyone nervous. No one understands very clearly what will happen, but, as they say in the OCU, an explosion could happen at any moment.

Image | Norberto Ortiz

In Hatak | Something is happening with olive oil: for the first time in many years, rain and “oversupply” are pulling the price down