The feeling of historic defeat spreading among British Conservatives has led to condemnations and accusations even before citizens go to the polls next Thursday. Of course, always under the protection of anonymity, but there are already many representatives who define the last six weeks as “the worst campaign” of their lives, as one of them admitted to the newspaper GuardianAnd he accused Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of not listening to his advisers.
Australian election guru Isaac Levido, who accompanied Boris Johnson to the 2019 election victory, tried to convince Sunak’s team to avoid two mistakes. First, calling an early election in July – could have waited until almost the end of the year – when good economic data such as inflation or GDP recovery had started to emerge. Second, forget about the voters who one day left the Labor Party and voted for him Tory For Brexit. Most have now returned home disappointed. Levidow suggested the prime minister’s campaign is focused on attacking her real threat: populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Only at the end of a few disastrous weeks have the Conservatives decided to leave behind their fear of angering those voters and begin to harshly attack Farage for his racism, xenophobia and homophobia. In any case, it is too late. The poll average gives Reform UK 16%, which could lead to a serious drop in the number of seats Tory.The same average maintains a 20 percentage point advantage for Labour over the Conservatives by the end of the campaign, who will have between 19% and 20% support.
The desperation of Sunak, who may go down in history as the candidate who caused the Conservative Party’s electoral collapse, has led him to enter into remarkable contradictions every time he changes his strategy. Just a week ago, when asked by a BBC journalist if he saw any qualities in his opponent Keir Starmer, he praised his desire for family reconciliation. The Labour candidate has always claimed to take time off from work every Friday at six o’clock in the evening, to devote time to his family. He and his wife have two children, aged 16 and 13.
Over the past few hours, the slogan repeated by Conservatives – including Sunak himself – has been to call Starmer I am feeling sleepy Sir (Mr. Sleepy) and chide him for his desire to maintain a proper work schedule. To the point of linking his habits to national security. “Defending the United Kingdom is a job that requires a little more time than a typical working day,” the still British Defense Minister, Grant Shapps, wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
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“It’s somewhat funny and makes you laugh. It shows that the Conservatives have nothing positive to add to this campaign anymore,” Starmer replied to the Times Radio presenter, who, ironically, congratulated himself on being able to interview him before going to bed at 6pm.
But the real sign that Sunak is only looking for ways to soften the defeat is found in the request to voters that he is constantly making these days to avoid a “supermajority” of Labor, which would result in an unelected government and a weak opposition. Sociologist John Curtice, one of the most listened to voices in the United Kingdom when it comes to electoral analysis, writes: “Lightning striking twice in the same place is more likely than Sunak winning these elections.” Ironed out. The Conservative candidate is now only looking for the electoral engineering necessary to avoid collapse.
“If just 130,000 people change their voting direction and support us, we can stop Starmer from getting that supermajority. Think about it. “You have the power in your hands to avoid a Labour government that will not be subject to any control,” the prime minister claimed on Tuesday at one of several election events in Oxfordshire, which he has focused on in the final phase of his campaign ahead of Thursday’s. Sunak was addressing voters directly who are considering shifting their support towards Starmer, the most moderate of Conservative voters – or those who have been seduced by Farage’s populist siren song. Seats in many of the 650 constituencies will depend on margins of just hundreds of votes.
In the final days of the campaign the Labour candidate must fight his two ghosts. He must convince those who take the victory of the left for granted that “if they want change, they have to vote for change,” and that, therefore, they cannot stay at home. And, above all, he must try to alleviate the fears generated by the Conservative campaign of a possible government with too much power and a large majority in Parliament.
“The bigger the majority, the better it is for the country,” Starmer told the newspaper. many timesIn a liberal interview, printed on the front page, suggesting that the main British newspapers, as has already been the case financial TimesThe cycle welcomes change after 14 years of Conservative governments in the United Kingdom. “With that majority, we will be able to roll up our sleeves and work for the change we need,” assured the Labour candidate, aware that his victory was an expression of citizens’ fatigue. Tory A sign of hope with the new political cycle coming.
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