Russia conquers its largest territory since July 2022 as Kiev eagerly awaits US weapons (analysis)

(CNN) — The five-month wait for the US Congress to approve $61 billion of military aid to Ukraine could cause lasting damage whose impact will be felt on the front lines in the months to come.

Russian forces have taken advantage of the “artillery drought” that has been hampering Ukraine’s defense since December to advance on the Eastern Front near Avdiivka, making their biggest advance since the first months of the war. Moscow’s advances have warned senior Ukrainian military commanders about the potential threat to Kiev’s supply lines and centers in the east, which are now dangerously close to the range of superior Russian firepower.

The sobering news of progress comes ahead of a planned Russian offensive at the end of May, which could threaten the Ukrainian presence in the Donetsk region and hard-won gains, even if slight, toward the captured port city of Mariupol. , may be in danger. Russia has poured huge resources against weak Ukrainian defenses on the eastern border, applying pressure on three key points: the vital military center of Pokrovsk, west of Avdiivka; the strategic heights of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut; and Kurakhov, to the southeast.

On February 17, Ukraine announced it was withdrawing from the decade-contested town of Avdiivka, which Russia has sacrificed hundreds of troops to capture. However, Moscow’s progress did not stop there. Over the next 10 weeks, as CNN maps and analysis by the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepStateMap show, Russian forces gradually captured village after village west of Avdiivka, taking advantage of the fact that Kiev had Had not fortified and was reluctant to announce publicly. The extent of its regional damage in that area.

It was not until Sunday that Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, acknowledged the fall of a series of villages that his subordinates had insisted for days remained uncontested. According to a CNN analysis, the resulting setback showed that Russian forces, in just two months, had made the most significant and rapid advance since the July 2022 advance near Severodonetsk.

Ukraine’s reluctance to acknowledge these losses provoked public criticism from some pro-Ukrainian bloggers and military analysts. DeepStateMap, which updates the situation on the front line daily, showed significant damage near Avdiivka. Ruslan Mykula, one of the group’s founders, told CNN he spoke out because he believed a military spokesman “has the opportunity to verify the real situation, but continues to provide misinformation And it undermines our credibility.”

Mykula said the Russian advance near Ocheretin, a village seized by Russia in recent weeks west of Avdiivka, is “so far a tactical success” but could become “a strategic success.” He further said, “In the current situation it will be very difficult to stop the enemy because he is pushing where the defense is not paying enough attention.”

He also said that defensive fortifications on “the entire left bank” of Avdiivka were missing, which would practically mean that the open fields were now almost unprotected up to a major road leading to the strategic Ukrainian center of Pokrovsk.

Tuesday’s update from the Ukrainian General Staff said its forces were defending several villages closer to Pokrovsk than was desirable. Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential speech on Tuesday called for “significant acceleration of (Western) supplies to significantly increase the capabilities of our troops.” He said that the defense of Kiev requires a “force that must be tested in the Pokrovsk direction”, as well as along other dangerous front lines in the south, near Kurakhov, but also in the north-east, near Kupyansk.

In the south-eastern part of this front, a Russian advance towards Kurakhov could threaten the gains made by Ukraine during the summer counteroffensive. To the north, Russia regularly bombs Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, but is set to recapture territory liberated by Ukraine in a lightning advance in late summer 2022, near Kupyansk. Also working hard on the front line.

Ukrainian officials have also publicly warned about the threat looming over Chasiv Yar, a small town near the city of Bakhmut that was brutally wrested from Ukrainian control last May. Chasiv Yar is located on a hill, and Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshin, spokesman for the Ukrainian Khortytsia command, said on Ukrainian television on Tuesday that Russian forces intend to advance through the canal near it and seize it to achieve a strategic offensive. On nearby important Ukrainian military cities.

Voloshin told Ukrainian television, “It will be very important for them to take Chasiv Yar before they receive foreign aid… when we stop running out of ammunition.” “If the enemy captures key heights and the occupiers gain a foothold there, it will be a big problem for us, because Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Druzhkivka will be immediately attacked.”

If these four cities, located on the same highway, were under serious threat, the Russian goal of controlling the entire Donetsk region would be very close to becoming a reality.

Yuri Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles attack drone company of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade in that region, said the next two months marked a “window of opportunity” for the Russian military. He said Russian forces have realized that Ukraine will soon have “the necessary means of air defense and the necessary range of ammunition concentrated on the front line, which will make it impossible for the enemy to carry out its tasks with the same intensity Which does now.” ,