Stir in Germany regarding early election date. international

Germany is moving toward early legislative elections after the collapse of its coalition government this week, but it is unclear when those elections could be held. This date still triggered a battle between the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the opposition, including the liberals who, until this week, were Scholz’s partners in the German triumvirate along with social democrats and environmentalists.

Social Democrat Scholz this Friday showed herself open to agreeing to a more accelerated calendar than the one she had initially considered, which provided for a vote of confidence on January 15 and an election at the end of March. It comes as the leading European economy faces criticism for leaving the leading European economy with a minority government for more than four months and little ability to legislate and react to international crises.

“We must discuss the date calmly,” Scholz admitted in Budapest, where he was attending a European summit. “It would be good if the democratic groups could reach an agreement in the Bundestag on what laws can be passed this year as well. “This agreement will answer the question of what is the right time for new elections.”

In a letter to the Chancellor, the chair of the Electoral Commission, Ruth Brand, warned, however, about the “incalculable risks” that calling them hastily and with the Christmas holidays in between would have on the logical organization of the elections. Could. Without the coalition break, elections would have been held next September, at the end of the four-year term.

Scholz plans to address the federal parliament on Wednesday, an occasion the head of the opposition, Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, believes should present a motion of confidence that would energize the electoral calendar. Merz, the clear favorite in the polls to succeed Scholz, wants elections on January 19, just before the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States, rather than in late March. “What Germany now needs is a government with the capacity to act,” he says.

Announcing the decision on Wednesday to fire his finance minister, liberal leader Christian Lindner, and thus leave him in the minority, Scholz presented an election plan in three stages.

The first involves the adoption of “non-deferrable bills” before the Christmas parliamentary recess to offset the effects of inflation or to revive an industry in crisis. To do this, the Chancellor will need the cooperation of Merz, to whom he has offered to cooperate on two issues he considers a priority: the economy – Germany is experiencing a recession for the second consecutive year and its powerful industry is losing competitiveness. And is facing potential restructuring – and the military budget and the war in Ukraine. A meeting was held between the two on Thursday, but no result was achieved.

Without a majority government, approving the 2025 budget is complicated. Scholz replaced Lindner at the Finance Ministry with one of his trusted advisers at the Chancellery: Jörg Küçük, the former head of Goldman Sachs in Germany.

The second phase will begin with a confidence motion on January 15, which is a provision in the Constitution to dissolve the federal parliament and allow early elections. A motion of confidence is a very extraordinary tool. It will be the sixth since the establishment of the Federal Republic in 1949.

Without a parliamentary majority, it can be predicted that Scholz will lose it and then, according to Article 68 of the Fundamental Law, the Federal President will have a period of 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag. And, once the Bundestag is dissolved, elections will be held within 60 days, according to Article 39. Thus the “end of March, at the latest” date is reached, which the Chancellor mentioned in his speech.

Merz is the chief

After the elections, the third phase of talks will open to form an alliance. Merz’s Christian Democrats are ahead in the polls, but the chamber’s fragmentation and the strength of the far right – Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be the second or third parliamentary force after the election – will complicate the formation of a majority. According to Jana Puglierin, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank in Berlin, the talks could last until June.

“This means Germany will no longer be able to play a leading role at the European level,” Pugliaren said in an analysis note. “Although Germany has not distinguished itself in this area over the past three years, we will now see even less initiative, flexibility and predictability from Berlin.”

But it can be seen in another way also. Yes, the German paralysis will last until the summer. And, between Trump’s return to the White House in January and the economic and industrial crisis in Germany, these months could be considered politically lost.

But without a government breakdown and early elections, the so-called traffic light coalition (because of the red, green and yellow colors of its members) will continue until the fall of 2025. And Scholz himself, in the speech in which he announced Lindner’s dismissal, called him “selfish” and accused him of “betraying” his trust, saying “Germany needs clarity quickly.” This argument – ​​that of “clarification” – is similar to the one French President Emmanuel Macron used to justify parliamentary dissolution last June.

pain of traffic lightInstead of lasting nearly a year, as it would have without Lindner’s removal, it would last only a few months. How many should become clear in a few days.