Investors are not entirely convinced, and any information can trigger a correction. That is what is happening today after the release of US employment data. The cooling of the labor market confirms expectations for a rate cut, but also highlights fears of a recession. Divided investors and a strong overvaluation of stock markets were more than enough conditions for profit-taking to gain momentum. With a 1% decline in the final stretch of the week, the Ibex index led the decline in Europe and said goodbye to the 11,000 mark.
Now that the first elections of the next six months have taken place, the market is looking ahead to the second round of the French elections. After the nervousness caused by Emmanuel Macron’s electoral success in recent days, stocks and especially bonds are breathing much easier. This is largely due to the decision of 218 candidates for parliament from centrist and leftist parties to withdraw their candidacies in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round. The goal is to concentrate votes and stop the rise of the far-right party. In anticipation of the development of the elections, investors are opting for buying the French stock market and the rest of the Old Continent’s indices. The French Cac is gaining 0.4%. Germany’s Dax is up 0.85%; the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.5% and Italy’s Mib is up 0.3%. A few hours before the US job creation announcement last month, global MSCI World shares hit all-time highs.
Grifols (2.97%) slips into the most bullish rankings for the third day in a row. The blood products company continues to squeeze out the benefits of selling 20% of Shanghai Rass (SRAAS), refinancing Scranton debt and appointing a new CFO. Rahul Srinivasan, who has financial experience at Credit Suisse and Bank of America, will replace Alfredo Arroyo, who has been responsible for Grifols’ financial management for the past 17 years. The biopharmaceutical company’s growth is felt in Rovi, which climbs 1 position. %. Solara (0.97%) and Ferrovial (0.97%) occupy almost third place in terms of the most optimistic values.
Enagás (-1.44%) and Melia (-1.3%) are the most bearish companies listed on the stock exchange, but due to their high weight in the select, it is banking that takes the most points from Ibex. BBVA has received the approval of a majority of shareholders for a capital increase, the first condition for the takeover bid to go ahead. Although there are still many filters to pass, the overwhelming support is seen as an early sign of success. Despite this, the company chaired by Carlos Torres did not escape losses and lost 0.23%, reaching 0.72% in Sabadell. With this performance, the premium that BBVA is offering for the takeover of the Catalan company is around 6%. Bankinter is the worst performer, down 1.46%, followed by Santander (-1.35%), CaixaBank (-1.25%) and Unicaja (-0.77%).
Debt, one of the most volatile assets of late, has barely moved. Spanish 10-year bond yields are steady at 3.37%, French 10-year bonds are at 3.27% and German bunds are at 2.58%. In the U.S., two- and 10-year yields fell six basis points to 4.64% and below 4.3%, respectively. June employment data paint a mixed picture. Although the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs, more than the 194,000 expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%.
“If what analysts predict comes true, we know that bond and stock markets will react positively, since a less tense labor market will make it easier for the Federal Reserve to start cutting its benchmark interest rates as soon as possible… like in September,” says Juan José Fernández Figares, director of Link Gestión. The margin of error is very narrow. The expert notes that figures much lower than expected, which will activate the specter of a recession, will not be well received by stock markets. On the other hand, the debt market could accelerate growth, since the greater the weakness, the more likely the Fed will accelerate rate cuts.
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