Tachogaite opens up ways to know the duration of eruptions

The CSIC study used data obtained from observing Tachogaite to predict the duration of the eruption.

Researchers Supreme Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) brought research developed around Tajogaite, whose results they promise to present progress in forecasting volcanic eruptions and its duration.

With an analysis of the shape change that La Palma underwent during the eruption, Scientists were able to estimate its duration from about 42 days before cessation. volcanic activity. In the methodology and implications of this work, published in a prestigious journal Letters on Geophysical Researchmembers Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) and National Geographic Institute (IGN).

The importance of surveillance networks

The work confirmed the importance of correct interpretation of data obtained in real time through volcanic monitoring networks. These instrumentation networks can track minute changes in the shape of terrain with high precision, even less than a centimeter. Key information for understanding the evolution of the eruption’s feeding system.

In the case of La Palma, a good configuration of the station network Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), deployed IGN allowed us to obtain an exceptional time series. These data, as well as conceptualization and modeling by CSIC and UPM, showed how the magma pressure decreased.

“Modeling the process of slowing down the compression of the volcano, which we calibrated during the eruption, allowed us to estimate the end of the deformation. Which, according to some fairly basic hypotheses about volcano physics, would coincide with the end of the eruption,” he notes. Pablo J. GonzalezResearcher, Volcanology Group Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC) from Tenerife.

The main hypothesis of the work was that the volcano’s power system was closed. That is, the dynamics of the eruption corresponded to a simple evacuation of fluids from the magma chamber, in which there were no new inflows of magma located at greater depths. “A posteriori analysis of the deformation slowdown process allowed us to confirm that this stabilization occurred 38-40 days before the end of the eruption. This analysis, and checking that the deceleration rate and the volume of lava erupted by the volcano matched, showed that the mass of the feeding system did not increase during the eruption,” he explains. Maria Charcoresearcher Institute of Geological Sciences (IGEO, CSIC-UCM) from Madrid.

Forecasting volcanic eruptions – an unresolved topicAnd

Currently, forecasting volcanic eruptions is one of the most important scientific tasks of modern volcanology. There is no knowledge or accurate tools that can be used to predict future changes in behavior.

Much progress has been made in predicting the onset of eruptions based on observations of seismicity and ground deformation. However, not as much progress has been made in other types of forecasts, such as total duration.

Knowing this information in advance is key to large eruptions like La Palma. Lava flows are a major geological hazard. Knowing how long lava flows feed would allow us to know in advance how far they can travel. So we can be more effective in reducing risks.