The left-wing Popular Front and Macronists unite to stop Le Pen in more than 200 constituencies in France

After nearly 48 hours of confusion, negotiations and pressure on candidates, the presidential coalition and the progressive parties have managed to form a ‘Republican Front’ in more than 200 constituencies (out of the 577 at stake in the legislative elections). The two blocs will ask their voters on Sunday to unify their votes in those areas in order to prevent Marine Le Pen’s extreme right from reaching a parliamentary majority in the French assembly.

Aware of what was at stake, citizens united last Sunday in a way not seen for decades, with participation rising to 66.71%. This strong mobilization has led more candidates to obtain the percentage of votes needed to reach the second round (12.5%) and has proposed a three-way duel in 300 constituencies with three candidates contesting the decisive vote on Sunday. In the 2022 legislative elections, there were only eight constituencies in which more than two candidates reached the second round.

Candidates qualified for the second round had until 6:00 p.m. this Tuesday to confirm or withdraw their candidacy in the prefectures. The decision to retain or withdraw candidates who came in third in those regions was raised particularly in the center and left parties, as it allows voters in the constituency who want to prevent the victory of a member of the National Group (AN) to be able to unite behind a single candidate.

Experts point out that in this game of withdrawals, the far right is the main loser. If the first vote projections gave Le Pen’s party 240 to 280 seats, the Republican Front’s activation could take it even further away from the 289 seats it needs for an absolute majority. “The withdrawal of candidates will cause AN to lose seats (in relation to the projections); when a candidate who is not AN gives up, his voters go to another party, it is a question of vote reservation,” explained this week Brice Teinturier, deputy director of Ipsos.

Match instructions

The New Popular Front (NFP) announced clearly and from the first moment that, if it were one of the first three, it would withdraw its candidates. In the presidential coalition, statements have been more ambiguous. The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has been in favour of a broad Republican front which – with some objections – also includes France Insoumise. Attal has demanded that most candidates withdraw from constituencies where they have finished third and the AN candidate could win. This decision aims to facilitate the victory of any left-wing candidate, including the France Insoumise party, provided that they defend the “values ​​of the Republic”.

Negotiations between the New Popular Front (a coalition of left-wing parties) and President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition continued throughout the day on Monday. Thus, the number of withdrawals increased on Tuesday: just hours before the legal deadline expired, the left had already withdrawn around 125 candidates in several constituencies, while the presidential coalition did the same with 80. Only a handful of candidates from these two blocks were reluctant – for different reasons – to abandon a race in which AN still had a chance of victory.

The distance between political language, electoral strategy and personal decisions over the past two days has complicated the equation. Because although the parties give directions, the final decision rests with each candidate. For example, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has been one of the members of the presidential coalition who has used a harsh message against France Insoumise. “None of our votes should go to any candidate of AN or France Insoumise,” he said on Sunday, “parties from which we are separated not only because of programmatic disagreements but also because of fundamental values.”

But in fact, some candidates from the party Philippe founded (Horizons) have withdrawn in favour of candidates from France Insoumise. This is the case of Laurent Bonterre, who was contesting a constituency in the Seine-Maritime region. “I would not like to see an AN deputy occupy Laurent Fabius’ (current president of the Constitutional Council) seat,” he explained.

This is a fundamental moment in these double-round legislative elections, as the final configuration of the duels takes shape. Until now, this variable was a major obstacle for the seat projections of demoscopic institutions, which did not know the exact number of candidates. Now, after the registration deadline, experts point out that the surveys published in the coming days will give a clearer image of what the composition of the next lower house of the French parliament could be.