The month that shook Venezuela (again): Chavismo consolidated itself and stifled hopes for change

Venezuela’s political conflict has intensified in the last month as it has not done since 2019. The holding of the presidential elections on July 28 activated a chain reaction with multiple effects: Chavismo faltered and decided to strengthen itself in the face of the opposition’s claims that it confirms the victory of Edmundo González Urrutia and demands that the government publish the electoral record. The Bolivarian apparatus aims to corner its opponents, led by the disqualified María Corina Machado, and play with ruptures as it has done on other occasions. However, the suspicions of serious irregularities in a day that, according to the authorities, ended with the victory of Nicolás Maduro, dealt a heavy blow to the foundations of Chavismo. Venezuela is once again in the focus of the international community, with the president and his staunchest supporters increasingly isolated, while tensions are growing and fear of repression is spreading. In this environment, both the opposition and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) will converge in Caracas this Wednesday in two parallel marches.

Machado and González Urrutia have been sheltered in a safe place for weeks to avoid judicial or police reprisals. Their teams have been decimated by police arrests and harassment. The opposition candidate was summoned on two occasions this week by the prosecutor’s office, which accused him, among other crimes, of “conspiracy” to destroy the official version and publish on a website the minutes that supported his victory. The Chavista leader tries to surround opposition supporters through judicial and propaganda channels, in order to eliminate their visibility, which is why the call for this Wednesday, announced by Machado a few days ago, aims to do exactly that: keep the pulse on the street, as it does for five years. There are similarities to what happened in 2019, when Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president, but also considerable differences. First of all, in this case the elections have already taken place and Maduro has not shown the world proof of victory.

Despite the fears, the coordinates of the concentration are public. It will take place on Avenida Francisco de Miranda, on the eastern edge of Caracas, at the gates of Petare, one of the most populated neighborhoods in Latin America. Already last March, attendees expressed their concern about the control and militarization of the city. The deployment of the so-called “Bolivarian Fury”, a social tool for the defense of the revolution, with which the PSUV activates its bases, has also contributed to souring the atmosphere in recent days.

Chavismo, on the other hand, wants to resolve the conflict over the electoral results. For the first time, they have called on their people to “celebrate the victory” instead of rejecting the coup attempt. That is to say, this slogan is meant to take for granted the victory that was declared by the National Electoral Council on the night of July 28 and validated a few weeks later by the Supreme Court, the country’s highest judicial body controlled by the executive. However, despite growing pressure from the international community and mediation efforts promoted by the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Colombian Gustavo Petro and the Mexican Andrés Manuel, Maduro refuses to submit the minutes.

On Monday, during the virtual summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), Hugo Chávez’s successor also focused on a new electoral process, announcing that in 2025 there would be a “mega-election” for the National Assembly, governors and mayors of the Caribbean country. However, he took advantage of this announcement to threaten those who question him. That is, those who do not recognize and obey the “powers of the State” will not be able to participate in these elections. The functioning of these powers is in fact the central focus of the conflict, since all the resources of public management and administration are in the hands of Chavismo.

Complaints by the CNE’s chief rector, Juan Carlos Delpino, who reported a “lack of transparency and truth” in the vote, provoked a sudden reaction from Diosdado Cabello, who requested his dismissal and replacement. In practice, it is an announced expulsion. But beyond the controversy over the vote, it remains to be seen how the crisis evolves in the coming months. The roads are still unpredictable and Maduro has reshaped the government to try to turn the page and ensure direct control over strategic sectors such as oil and the police forces. However, the long-planned change also opens up new scenarios.

Maduro must officially take possession of his new mandate in January 2025. There are still more than four months left in which many factors can change. Until then, externally driven mediation efforts will continue. The results of the November elections in the United States, in which current Vice President Kamala Harris will face former President Donald Trump, are still unclear. But there are no signs that Chavismo is ready to give up. The latest signals show a willingness to double down on pressure against opponents and, at the same time, Maduro has ruled out possible negotiations. He also accused Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, of “pointing his rifles and cannons” against Caracas. Borrell’s sin was to demand transparency, a word that became taboo in Chavismo power circles on July 28.

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