The Strait of Hormuz and its role in a possible new oil crisis

He strait of hormuz It is the link between the Persian Gulf and the ocean oil river Which irrigates the world with 20.5 million barrels per day, which is about 27% of all international maritime trade of this type of products. Geopolitical tensions and especially the red button on the territory that is in the hands of Iran may block that area And take oil back above $100.

Not just this weekend Iran has attacked Israel, but it has been officially confirmed that the local conflict in Gaza has reached a regional status in the Middle East. Markets are now eyeing the Strait of Hormuz, where many of the major oil producing countries have access to the sea: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and his own iran,

short term oil price

The weekend’s rise was already anticipated by the markets, with a rise last Friday. Today he replied calmly, stressed price stabilityFor a theoretical halt to the conflict, but not a shrinking escalation brent It’s still at $90. In respect of general commercial business, freight price The rebound, although still far from its December values, and well ahead of the highs set right after the pandemic.

At least this is the scenario till Monday, April 15 moderate optimism Of political and business class. Repsol CEO Josue John Imaz expects the rise to stop and believes “markets are interpreting that today.” This is the majority diagnosis, and it is also shared by Economy Minister Carlos Bodi, who promises “constant follow-up and monitoring” of the situation.

what’s at stake

What will happen if Iran decides to press the red button and close the Strait of Hormuz? According to the latest, this would mean cutting the transit of 20.5 million barrels of petroleum products per day, which is practically 27% of this seaborne trade. EIA data Of the first half of 2023.

would mean closing the route for oil tankers Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar’s sea access cut off, and a large part of the coastal region of the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia would also suffer losses, but could still count on its western coast on the Red Sea.

Such conflict would mean a immediate increase Oil prices will rise, unless countries like the United States put their oil reserves on the market, something that Joe Biden may do in the US if he intends to keep the price of crude oil limited during his election campaign. Are” he says. Rafael Noguera, Professor at EADA Business School.

spain exhibition

If the conflict spreads to more countries, and spreads over time, “we could talk about skyrocketing prices,” defends Noguera, and in that scenario, all Western countries would suffer huge losses.

Of all these countries, Spain will be one of those that can best withstand this shock, given its energy diversification due to “solar panels, wind power, regasification plants…”, said Professor Santiago of the University of Valencia. Defends Carbo and director of the financial sector of Funcas. This has a direct impact on gasoline and diesel pumps, which are already taking advantage of the increase in oil prices.

As far as goods are concerned, freight cost The return of ships according to the stock market index which determines its quantity baltic arid index, However, in the words of Agriculture Minister Luis Planas, the Spanish government believes that “the situation is stable.”

On the other end, bank of spainIn its Spring Financial Stability Report, it expressed concern about the conflict and specifically feared that “if it affects traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, finally bother more intensely to the global economy”.