The three women on whom the future of the EU depends

The EU’s ‘festival of democracy’ began in the Netherlands on Thursday and will end this Sunday 11:00 PM. At what point do the last polling stations in Italy close? The results will be published. Total 360 million people Across the EU, 720 MEPs are up for election (15 more than in 2019), These are distributed among member states based on their population. Germany is the country that sends the most representatives to Strasbourg (96) and Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta the least (6). Spain held 61 elections. European elections are considered ‘second order’ and participation is low: in 2019 it was 50.7%.

All polls predict a sharp shift to the right in the European Parliament for the next legislature. European People’s Party (in which von der Leyen is active) will win the election easily (173 seats), ahead of the European Socialists (143 seats), according to a referendum poll prepared by Politico. The two majority forces retain their positions compared to the last 2019 elections. The liberals were decimated Renovation (to 75 seats from the existing 102) and Especially the greens (41 seats compared to present 72).

(European elections: A guide to understanding what’s at stake on 9-J in Brussels)

The big news is the increase of Radical right-wing forcescan be done upto 25% of seats in the new parliament. These parties top the polls in nine member states (including France, Italy, Austria, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland) and are in second or third place in nine others. In their internal struggle, the winner is the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)Led by Meloni and in which Vox and Poles from Law and Justice also participate: Political They were allotted 76 seats.

The second far-right group in the European Parliament, Identity and democracywhose boss is Marine Le PenAfter the expulsion of the Alternative for Germany, which was seen as too radical, 67 MEPs remain. Identity and Democracy also has the League of Matteo SalviniPPV of Geert Wilders Or Austrian FPO. Finally, polls predict another win for Viktor Orban in Hungary, who is now among the non-registered but could make a move after 9-J.

Although in the EU it is national governments – not the European Parliament – ​​that monopolise the bulk of power and set the political direction, this shift to the right is Will complicate the approval of new green standards and the fight against climate change, as was already seen in the last phase of the legislature. And this can be translated into a making immigration policy extra strict, The second priority is to generate full consensus among forces that are otherwise deeply divided among themselves. The worst-case scenario would be that the extremists would gain an obstructionist minority capable of paralysing the European Parliament.

Ursula von der Leyen

The most that 9-J can lose is this Ursula von der Leyen. If at the beginning of the year they felt that everything was in their favor Repeat the second term As Commission president, she has had notable setbacks in recent weeks that raise questions about her continuity. Von der Leyen first needs to be appointed (by a qualified majority) by European leaders at a summit on 27 and 28 June. And then it must be approved by an absolute majority (361 votes) in a (secret) ballot in the new European Parliament, which will probably take place on 18 July.

,I am sure I have the support of many leadersThey know me and they know my experience,” von der Leyen said at a campaign event in Porto on Thursday. So far, only Viktor Orban has announced that he will vote against him. But the French Emmanuel Macron He is skeptical of the German’s decision to present himself as the EPP candidate this time, which in his opinion compromises his mediation role. Indeed, it has leaked to the European press that Macron prefers the former ECB president. Mario Draghi,

If she passes this first hurdle, von der Leyen will need to form a “broad coalition” in the European Parliament. The Populists, Socialists and Liberals (the ‘grand coalition’ that supported her during her first term) theoretically have a total of 389 votes. But Party discipline is not maintained in Strasbourg and many defections, therefore putting its absolute majority at risk. In 2019, the German Difference of only 9 votes,

That is what explains it Von der Leyen’s approach to Melonisince he wants to obtain the vote of the Italian brothers (up to 25 seats according to the polls) as a safety net. On the other hand, such a coalition could cause him to lose the support of the socialists and liberals, who say they will not accept a pact with the extreme right.

Giorgia Meloni

the prime minister of Italy 9-J’s a big winner even before voting begins. Meloni, troubled by her radicalism and anti-Europeanism, has now become The Kingmaker From Brussels. The leader with the most potential moves, the one with the ability to determine the direction of the next legislature. Von der Leyen pushed him to join the grand coalition. Macron also wants to recruit her for his plan to oust German and replace her with Mario Draghi. Marine Le Pen offered them to join forces in a unique far-right supergroup.

since coming to power Meloni has behaved like a pragmatic leader in Brussels. He joined the consensus on central reforms such as the migration and asylum treaty, new financial rules or sanctions against Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine, and distanced himself from other ultra governments such as Hungary or previously Poland. Von der Leyen says of him, “He is clearly pro-European.” At the same time, he remains the prime minister of Italy loyal to its alliance with Vox and other Europhobic forces,

This was demonstrated at a conference of far-right parties in Madrid on May 19. In a combative speech, Meloni characterized the European Union as “a Bureaucratic giants its purpose is to regulate all aspects of our lives” and that “Force your citizens to welcome large numbers of irregular immigrants Faced with proposals from some and others, the Italian prime minister allows herself to be loved but keeps her options open.

Marine Le Pen

Although she would clearly win the election with France, the president of the National Group is the person who has the least room for maneuver after the 9-J. Its main objective is not even Strasbourg, but Continue to polish your image in view of the 2027 presidential elections,

Their aim was to create a single far-right supergroup in the European Parliament – whose first objective would be to overthrow and secure the re-election of von der Leyen, who has already said I will never cooperate with him because of his ties to Vladimir Putin– There is little chance of prosperity because of the disputes and personal quarrels that divide these forces.

For Meloni, being in the same group as Le Pen would mean opposing most European leaders.which includes Macron, von der Leyen and Scholz. He will also leave his role as a bridge between European conservatives and reformists and the European People’s Party. A dilemma whose solution will begin this Monday, June 10.