The war in Ukraine has entered its third year

Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war has entered a new phase. Gone are the commemorations or visits by international leaders – the President of the United States himself was in Ukraine on the first anniversary of the war – who were lining up to visit Kiev. Ukraine now enters a third year of war filled with uncertainty: 2024 is an election year for the United States and the European Union; In the spotlight are Israel and Palestine, who will continue to provide military and economic support to Volodymyr Zelensky?

Ukrainian leaders are aware that Western support for their troops is at risk, as they spoke on the matter at the Munich security conference on February 17. “Unfortunately, keeping Ukraine in a deficit of artificial weapons, especially artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war,” Zelensky said at the forum. The Ukrainian president was referring to the blocking of aid from the United States due to resistance from Republican congressmen. The stalemate in support of Kiev already had an impact on the battlefield, with the fall of Avdeevka, the largest Russian victory in months.

The Ukrainian army, which had dozens of allies at the time, has made little military progress in the third year of the war: Russia’s occupied territories are still unchanged and the publicized Ukrainian counteroffensive has ground to a halt. And this process caused the furious reaction at the beginning of the invasion, although still alive, to show obvious signs of fatigue. The risk: that the war in Ukraine turns into a frozen conflict, another conflict in the post-Soviet region. Or even that this is the moment Ukraine begins to lose the war. “To analyze the current situation in Ukraine, we must remember that the war in Ukraine today is not two years old, but ten years old: when Russia annexed Crimea and destabilized Donbass in 2014; That is precisely the area where Russian aggression is now concentrated,” Marie Dumoulin, director of the European Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), tells neutral.es.

• Statistics after two years of war. According to figures from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Ukraine is entering its third year of war, with 14.6 million people in need of some form of humanitarian assistance, including 3.7 million displaced within Ukraine and elsewhere. Had to go. With continued pendulum movements, more than six million people have fled to European countries.

Experts say neither side has enough resources to change the situation on the battlefield

Experts consulted by Neutral.es assure that there are fears that this is the moment when Ukraine is losing the war. “This is a war of attrition in which the ability of the parties to outlast the opponent is what matters,” says Dumoulin. And Ukraine’s potential is directly related to support from the West, which is beginning to waver.

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After the first phase of the Russian offensive in February 2022, when the world feared that Russia would achieve complete victory by capturing Kiev, the Ukrainian army managed to repel the attacks thanks to great arms support from the West. After enduring several months of almost continuous attacks with bombings on the front and even in cities far from the battlefield, Ukraine is set to reclaim Russian-occupied territory in the east of the country by the summer of 2023. Started retaliatory action.

However, the strategy did not produce the expected results and, as Reuters analysis shows, Kiev’s troops made hardly any progress against Russian resistance. The British agency blames several factors for the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, including the fact that Zelensky’s forces divided their attacks on several fronts at the same time: Bakhmut, Berdyansk and Zaporizhia. “Ukraine had and continues to have the difficult and complex task of regaining control over territory over a wide area with a long line of contact, against an enemy that has little time to strengthen its defenses and prepare for a counter-offensive. There were several months while the Ukrainians prepared, trained and waited for deliveries of more weapons and equipment from their international sponsors,” Dr. Jenny Mathers, a Russia expert, tells Neutral.es.

In any case, after the Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive, the battle front remains stable despite fierce fighting after two years of war. “Neither side has sufficient resources, neither material nor human, to carry out offensive operations. So when Ukraine tried to launch a counteroffensive in the summer, it failed because Russia was effectively defending areas under its control. And when Russia tries to launch offensive operations, it has limited success because it does not have sufficient resources to carry out a successful offensive,” the ECFR director analyzes. This means that at present neither side can take a decisive lead on the battlefield.

Ukraine announced the withdrawal of its troops from the city of Avdiivka

Ukraine’s strategy for the new phase of the war: active defense

At this critical moment in Ukraine, Zelensky has decided Armed Forces chief of staff Valery Zaluzny was removed from office in a bid to renew leadership in the face of Russian aggression on the threshold of the war’s third year. Zaluzny is one of the country’s most prominent figures in the counter-offensive, which he successfully commanded in late 2022. Furthermore, he had in an interview criticized the stalemate situation in which the war finds itself. economist In November 2023. Zaluzhny was replaced by the new commander Oleksandr Sirsky, who decided to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement and human casualties.

For CIDOB senior researcher Carmen Klaudin, an expert in Russian politics and the post-Soviet space, Sirsky’s decision summarizes the Ukrainian military’s new strategy for this new phase of the war: a reduction in military force to avoid high human casualties. Not concentrating on one place. And prevent Russian troops from advancing on other fronts. A strategy that Sirski himself defined as “active defense” in an interview with Reuters. “Hold our positions and exhaust the enemy by inflicting maximum damage.” In Dumoulin’s opinion, following the poor results of the retaliatory strike, Ukraine “is likely to use this 2024 to prepare for a renewed attack in 2025.”

However, Mathers points to “the fatigue of soldiers and society in Ukraine” as factors to take into account in the development of the war as it enters its third year. “It’s also possible that Kyiv will soon have to make some difficult decisions about whether to mobilize or recruit more citizens,” the doctor says.

Russia to announce new mobilization after Putin’s re-election in Russian presidential election

Experts agree on predictions that Russia will step up its operations after the presidential election on March 17, when it will order new mobilization in the wake of the third year of war in Ukraine. “The Russian government is considering a new mobilization so Putin can bring more people to the battlefield, but it would not happen before the presidential elections in March to avoid the electoral costs of recruiting more troops,” Dumoulin says. ”

Mathers says, “Moscow’s strategy now may be to buy time: to exhaust Ukrainian capabilities and supplies through sustained bombings and attacks, fostering the belief that Ukraine cannot win and that Russia’s victory is inevitable.”

In any case, for experts the subsequent results of the elections in the United States will be decisive for the future of the war. Claudin says, “The only hope for Ukraine in the medium term is that there will be a massive increase in Western support; without more resources it is possible that several months will pass and the conflict will remain at the same point.”

sources say

Marie Dumoulin, Director of the European Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

Carmen Claudin, senior researcher at CIDOB, specializing in Russian politics and the post-Soviet space

Jenny Mathers, doctor specialist in Russia

United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR)

reuters agency

Zelensky’s presidential website