The world wants the war in Ukraine to end; not putin

(CNN) — A change in the language used by the Ukrainian military in the 72-hour daily update tells the story: “Defensive fighting underway.” “Pretty much spoiled.” “Russian Strategic Success.”

Kiev’s high command is rarely heard speaking pessimistically, but its sharp trajectory southwards shows the dire place Ukraine finds itself. Russia is not just advancing in one place; It appears that he is moving in four divisions in the front line.

Moscow knows time is against it: In about a month, $61 billion in US military aid to Ukraine will begin to translate into the weapons it has been begging for. So it appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin is giving it his all, knowing that the fighting is likely to intensify for his forces in the coming summer.

The first and most worrying point is the northern border near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. The Russian army has crossed the border at several places and claims to have captured nine villages. The advance of 5 to 7 kilometers into Ukraine, in the border area above that city, Kharkiv, is probably its most rapid advance since the early days of the war. Ukrainian officials said Russia has sent five battalions to the border town of Vovchansk, which was hit hard by airstrikes over the weekend.

Some military bloggers say that the city of Lipsi is in danger and from there Russian forces could attack Kharkiv with artillery. This is a nightmare for Kiev for two reasons: First, they liberated this land from Russian forces 18 months ago, yet they failed to fortify the area sufficiently to prevent Moscow from returning as easily. However, he was expelled just as easily.

And second, Russia could inflict heavy damage on the overstretched Ukrainian army by applying sustained, brutal pressure on Kharkiv and bombing the vast urban center.

Then there is the rest of the front, where progress in the Kharkiv area reflects old, fierce battles and sudden new Russian successes. This should be of greatest concern to Kiev, as it suggests a coordinated effort to move in all directions and leave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with unpleasant choices about where to send limited resources and where to ultimately make sacrifices.

Moving gradually south from Kharkiv, close to Bakhmut, the city of Chasiv Yar is under intense pressure, a valuable height over the two major Ukrainian military cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which becomes a massive pressure point during the summer on the Kiev supply lines. Could. Netilov and Krasnohorivka, a little further south, show Russian forces making further advances west of Avdeevka, and threatening another major centre: Pokrovsk. If Ukraine begins to retreat further from here, its control over what remains of the Donetsk region could be in danger.

And then overnight, Deep State Map, a Ukrainian military analysis group, said the southern town of Vrbov, one of the least profitable from Kiev’s summer counter-offensive last year, was in greater danger. By all accounts, the news is bad: It’s a looming disaster.

Ukraine’s rhetorical response has been revealing. Their leaders have once openly said how bad the situation is. It appears they are shuffling commanders, which is not something you do in the heat of battle without some desperate reason. There has been vocal criticism of the failure to prepare and strengthen the northern border areas last year. In fact, along much of the front line where there is no active fighting, and close to the active front line behind, fortifications appear inadequate, if not entirely absent. It may be that Kiev was so confident in its counteroffensive last summer that it did not consider the possibility of bad news this summer.

Kiev’s biggest problem is global attention. Strong statements from European ministers and even visits by senior Joe Biden administration officials to the US cannot dispel fatigue or the idea that helping Ukraine win is something that governments consider strategically necessary. , not something its citizens actively demand. This is becoming a war about which the world wishes would disappear, sidelining the horrors of the Middle East, precisely at the moment when its outcome would be most dangerous and critical to European security.

Putin used the weekend to reshuffle his Cabinet, shifting Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to a more procedural role as head of the National Security Council and perhaps moving him away from the war budget. Andrey Belousov, an accountant, will replace him. But this is not necessarily a sign of retribution for failure, nor of a reset: the same old people still get good jobs. Rather, it appears to be an effort in Moscow to economize, integrate the war more fully into the economy, and prepare for a longer war.

The opposite is happening in the West, where congressional dysfunction, which has blocked $61 billion in US aid, has already wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s military efforts. Their forces are now losing because of a six-month delay in the arrival of ammunition. Europe talks a lot about bridging this gap, but it is unable to do so. And Washington will now be in the midst of election campaign turmoil ahead of the US elections in November, when Kiev needs US certainty more than ever.

The news is not only bad, but is getting worse by the day. The land on the front lines is drying up, bringing us into raiding season. Russia is on pace unlike anything seen since March 2022. Ukraine is forced to admit how bad the situation is. Most of the world may be tired of this war, but not Putin.