There is growing fear in the market that the government is behind the BBVA-Sabadell operation

Around the offer BBVA made to Sabadell, circumstances begin to arise that increase alarm is on shop who’s afraid of that Sanchez Executive also maneuvers in the shadows to influence the outcome.

Particularly striking is the position expressed Felix Bolaños, Sánchez’s right-hand man, Moncloa strategy developer and Minister of Justice. The fact that he is not part of the government’s economic apparatus did not stop him from clearly stating that this is “good news” as he considers it positive to “have solid, leading and leading organizations in the EU and in the world” since the conglomerate that emerged as a result operations, will give rise to the second Spanish bank in terms of assets.

In addition, an emergency will occur. And the State Through Frob, he is already one of the majority shareholders of CaixaBank.

(based on the La Caixa Foundation). And with their influence on this operation, if it continues, it will lead to Caixa Bank and BBVA-Sabadell controlling almost 90% of the market in Catalonia and a significant share in other autonomous communities. In addition, it will be the first Spanish institution ahead of CaixaBank in terms of assets and second in terms of deposits after CaixaBank.

Another key that drives the market is that the government seemed to know about BBVA’s intentions, but Sabadell did not. This is essentially an operation “undesirable” offer from Banco Sabadell which would eventually lead to Sabadell’s takeover by BBVA.

Connected

Market sources very close to the operation are analyzed to Free market real situation. On the one hand, they remember it. This is an operation that was not discussed, explored or requested between both parties., which corresponds to the description of a hostile takeover. On the other hand, the fact that BBVA does not offer cash and at a premium to the fair value (rather than book or capitalization value) of Sabadell makes it a priori economically unattractive to Sabadell shareholders. AND The reality is that Sabadell itself is on a clear path upward.

after trading at 20% of its book value for the last 4 years, that’s 80%, on a clear upward trajectory.

In fact, these sources fear that the government has a hidden interest in the operation, and they fear, especially from those around Sabadell, that BBVA launched an operation in agreement with the government.

Finally, other sources, who have analyzed both the operating conditions and the reporting of both companies in detail, believe that BBVA’s offer has little chance of success, mainly because it is only offering securities, and securities that have very high potential in the medium term. less than your own. That is, these analysts give Sabadell a better opportunity to grow on its own or through a smaller bank operation than being acquired by BBVA, so if it prospers, these sources suggest. This will only be with the support of the government.

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Background

Various market players would not be so openly afraid of this opportunity if it were not for the open interventionist strategy that the executive branch has adopted in the most powerful business structure in our country. Thus, through Frob he has already taken control positions in Telefónica, Indra, CaixaBank and is preparing to enter Naturgy. A background that raises a shadow of suspicion regarding the executive’s intentions regarding BBVA and Sabadell.