Trump and Miley What could Miley, the first foreign president to meet Trump, gain from the Republican’s return to the White House?

Xavier Miley took a risky bet on Donald Trump and everything indicates that he has won.

“The work you have done in Argentina is incredible,” the President-elect of the United States praised his Argentine counterpart this Thursday at a dinner organized by the America First Policy Institute in Palm Beach, Florida.

,make argentina great again“It works well with A, it doesn’t work so well with other countries,” Trump said in front of dozens of guests at the special dinner, which included the country’s main conservative leaders and future Cabinet officials. Those who joined will take charge. On 20th January.

Before Trump’s laudatory words, Miley had described the Republican victory as “the greatest political comeback in history.”

“Thanks to it, the world is much better today because the winds of freedom are blowing much stronger,” said the Argentine president, who spoke this Friday at Trump’s residence in Mar-a-Lago at the Center for Conservative Political Action. Will speak at the conference (CPAC).

this is how mili became First foreign president to meet Trump After his victory.

Since becoming president, Miley has not hesitated to show her admiration and devotion to Trump, even when Democrat Kamala Harris was in first place in the polls.

Already in the first days of the liberal administration, Miley hugged Trump in the middle of an event of the same organization last February, the day after the meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Additionally, just a few days ago Miley met a senator from Florida marco rubio at the Casa Rosada without knowing that he would later be nominated by Trump to occupy the powerful post of Secretary of State.

I met him three times Elon Musk -who was also present at this Thursday’s dinner-knowing that it would be he who would lead the new Department of Government Efficiency recently announced by Trump.

“The relationship between Miley and Trump is unbeatable”The Doctor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University says, robert russellFormer director of the Doctorate in International Studies at the University of Torquato di Tella.

Now, what does Miley’s closeness to Trump mean for Argentina?

“Miley is likely to find that automatic alignment usually doesn’t bring much reward, only pain and the accusation of betrayal,” he says from Miami. Anthony PereiraKimberly Green Director of the Latin America Center, Florida International University.

these are some Benefits and problems According to analysts, this could lead to Argentina’s stronger rapprochement with the United States.

Whenever Miley says Trump, she looks above the ego “It feels more comfortable” Dealing with it compared to the rest of the world.

For Russell, that defined Argentina’s relations with the United States. “Perfect Alignment”Trump’s victory is a validation of Miley’s way of doing politics.

The “disruptive, frontal, polarizing” style shared by Miley and Trump, in addition to leaders like Nayib Bukele or Jair Bolsonaro, gives Miley the oxygen to sustain and deepen it.

Russell of Buenos Aires says, “In these cases, the quality of democracy takes a secondary place. The idea of ​​concentration of power seems to be something important to be able to carry out reforms that indicate a great change.”

The Argentinian president has given several examples of his disruptive style, especially on the international stage in the past week.

A series began after the forced resignation of Foreign Minister Diana Mondino Negative and single vote from Argentina To various UN resolutions on topics ranging from indigenous rights to denouncing digital violence against women and girls.

Russell says, “What Miley wants is she wants to isolate herself, she wants to be alone, she wants to show that her situation is almost unique. Miley doesn’t care about the United Nations, if it were up to her she would Would have shut it down.”

Along these lines, Miley decided to withdraw the Argentinian delegation from the COP 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan this week, arguing that “policies blaming humans for climate change are false and those of vague socialists. tries to raise money to finance it.”

“This decision, more than a strategic calculation on Miley’s part, seems like a impulsive and desperate actions To appease Trump and become a favorite of the most radical global right-wingers,” says Pereira of Miami, who assures that Argentina will still remain irrelevant in United States foreign policy.

For Pereira, Miley’s attitude toward Trump is part of who she is “ideological stance” and “the desire to become a global political figure.”

Trump visited Latin America only once during his first presidency (2017–2021), and that was a brief trip to Buenos Aires to attend the G20 summit in late 2018.

In any case, despite ideological proximity and similar ways of doing politics, Trump’s relationship with Miley worries analysts because it is a “Unequal and asymmetric relations”,

Perera says, “A smart foreign policy would involve smart calculations of national interest and relying on long-term policies beyond individual governments. I don’t think that’s what we’re seeing here.”

,We are exporting chainsaw models And deregulation was announced to the entire world by the President of Argentina on November 12 at the Meta de Argentina.

For Pereira, the idea that Miley’s approach to public spending in Argentina would be emulated by the Trump administration is “ridiculous.”

“I doubt Trump has any sympathy for Miley’s ‘anarcho-capitalism’ or libertarian impulses,” says the Harvard University government doctor.

The United States has a fiscal deficit of 7.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), which it can finance by borrowing in its own currency, while Argentina cannot.

So, for the expert, Trump does not need to move forward with a radical austerity plan like Argentina’s to eliminate the deficit, which is why it is important to be cautious when talking about expectations.

Especially because of Trump and Miley’s different views on the economy.

For example, import duty For Trump, they are a way to grow industry, protect jobs and increase tax revenues. Whereas Miley, with his position of minimizing state interference, thinks the opposite.

Pereira says, “Trump does not share Miley’s passion for Austrian school economics and to the extent that he understands economics, Trump favors economic nationalism and protectionism through tariffs and investment in the US.”

This economic policy, which recovers elements of its first mandate, could bring complications for developing countries such as Latin America.

“This would likely lead to increased tariffs, and even a general tariff imposed on all imports, which would hurt Argentine exports to the United States,” Pereira says.

Trump has already said that he will impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and 20% on imports from other parts of the world.

The political closeness between the two presidents could guarantee some preferential treatment towards Argentina, but in a moderate manner.

In that context, Argentina could play a central role in leading Trump’s crusade against China in Latin America. However, it is to be expected that China will deploy a commercial response with countries such as Argentina.

“In 2019, in the midst of the trade war, China decided to buy more soybeans from Argentina, in order to raise the price of soybeans exported by Argentina and lower the price of soybeans from the US. This could happen again. Is,” he tells the BBC. Mundo. economist santiago bulatDirector of the Institute for Development of the Argentine Economy.

Although Trump is known for his dealings, it is unclear what Miley could offer him other than mineral resources such as lithium, in which China has significant investments in northern Argentina, as well as food and energy.

The Argentine government hopes that the main help will come from the financial sector.

Expectations regarding Trump’s role point toward Argentina’s foreign debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where the United States has veto power as the organization’s majority member.

There is a precedent from 2018, when Trump gave a loan of almost US$50 billion to Argentina during the government of Mauricio Macri, to a country that should not have received more than US$16 billion due to its quota.

“Argentina is doing very well fiscally and monetary, but bad in reserves. This is where you need support.” says Bulat.

He further said, “Apart from the United States, the rest of the countries are reluctant to lend more money to Argentina. I don’t think with Trump coming in, Argentina will get more money through the IMF.”

However, if this is the case, it would not mean a distribution of funds on the scale of 2018, nor is it something that the current government considers appropriate, with the aim of improving the debt repayment scheme.

Miley has also expressed her desire to establish a free trade agreement with the United States.

“The elected government feels more comfortable working with me than with other governments and that has commercial and financial implications,” he told the Argentine press after Trump’s victory was announced last week.

“Under these circumstances we can move forward on major trade agreements with the US, just as we are moving forward with China.”

According to official data, Argentina is an important supplier of raw materials to the Americas, with crude oil, gold, raw aluminum and lithium carbonate being among the main export products.

Russell summarizes, “Trump’s return confirms Miley’s view that he is on the right track. But Miley will be judged by what he can and cannot do financially. “Whatever he does will be helpful in another sense.”

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