Trump and Sheinbaum bring situation to a close on immigration in an “amazing” call usa elections

An “amazing” call, according to Donald Trump. According to Claudia Sheinbaum, “excellent”. The President-elect of the United States and the President of Mexico held a telephone conversation this Wednesday, 48 hours after the Republican threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the southern neighbor on his first day in office if he did not Stopped. The arrival of immigrants and the smuggling of fentanyl and other drugs bound for the United States. The nature of their messages suggests that they have brought the positions closer together, without making it clear what the implications of this are for trade policy.

Both have said very positive things about the call in messages spread through their social networks. However, in reality, there are nuances that make a difference. While Trump is hanging on to the medal of curbing the influx of undocumented immigrants even before taking office, Sheinbaum says the Mexican government had already taken steps in this regard.

“I had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. He has agreed to halt migration into Mexico and the United States, effectively closing our southern border. We also talked about what can be done to prevent the large-scale entry of drugs into the United States, and American consumption of these drugs. “This was a very productive conversation,” Trump wrote on the social network Truth. Soon after, he reiterated the same idea with another message: “Mexico will stop people from traveling to our southern border effective immediately. This will make a great contribution to stopping the illegal invasion of the United States. Thank you!!!”

Sheinbaum partially agreed with this message: “I had a very good conversation with President Donald Trump. We addressed Mexican strategy on the migration phenomenon and I shared that the caravans are not reaching the northern border because they are taken care of in Mexico. We also talked about strengthening cooperation on security issues within the framework of our sovereignty and about the campaign being run in the country to stop the consumption of fentanyl,” he wrote on the social network X, owned by Elon Musk.

According to Trump, his carrot and stick policy has worked and Mexico will stop the arrival of immigrants “effective immediately.” According to Sheinbaum, “caravans are no longer coming to the northern border.” Those are two different explanations.

The Mexican president had already reminded Trump in a public statement of the “efforts” Mexico is making to prevent fentanyl from entering the United States, as well as to stem the flow of foreigners to its border and migrants. Support was also provided to the Republican claims. “Tariff after tariff will cause us to lose competitiveness, what we want is to complement each other,” Sheinbaum said Tuesday.

low arrivals

The arrival of immigrants to the United States has declined significantly in recent months following measures adopted by the Joe Biden government. The US President signed a decree that dramatically limited entries in the beginning of the summer, as it gave him the power to close the border to immigration if there were more than 2,500 irregular daily crossings for a week. The Mexican government’s own policy of placing barriers on these arrivals has also slowed migrant flows, although recent weeks have seen a rebound due to fears that stricter immigration policies will be implemented when Trump takes office on January 20. .

In his message on Monday, Trump said he will impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the United States from Mexico and Canada on the first day of his second term. All illegal aliens should stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the full authority and power to easily resolve this long standing problem. “We hereby demand that you use this power, and unless you do, it is time for you to pay a very high price!”

After that message, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Trump. “We talk about deep and effective relations between our countries that flow from one side to the other. We talked about some challenges that we can work on together. It was a good call,” the Canadian prime minister said of that conversation. “This is a relationship that we know needs work and that’s what we will do,” Trudeau said.

Conservative Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, was more strident and less diplomatic. “Comparing us to Mexico is the most insulting thing I’ve ever heard,” he said. “It feels as if a family member has stabbed you in the heart,” he stressed, placing all responsibility on Mexico.

The tariffs Trump has threatened would be a serious blow to the treaty that governs trade relations between the three North American countries. It was signed in 2020 under Donald Trump’s first term. This included rewriting the 1994 free trade agreement and allowing the free flow of goods between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Along with China (on which Trump also threatens to impose additional tariffs), Mexico and Canada are the United States’ main trading partners.

Trump has given no indication whether his threat of tariffs is futile following his “wonderful” talks with the Mexican president. Most analysts believe this is a plan, but they do not plan on executing it as such. “We do not believe Trump will fully follow through on this latest threat, and we think his announcement serves as a preliminary step ahead of negotiations with Mexico and Canada to update the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The defense is negotiations between the three countries, or perhaps with Mexico, on border security. We also think the response from some companies like automakers and home builders will be severe and will deter Trump from moving forward with these tariffs,” Oxford Economics. says Nancy Vanden Houten, chief US economist.

Still, the firm has analyzed the potential macroeconomic implications of the tough trade policy advocated by Trump, including his latest tariff threats against Mexico, Canada and China. “In this scenario, GDP growth in 2025 is 1.3 percentage points lower than our baseline scenario, while inflation, the unemployment rate, and the federal funds rate are higher,” Houghton concluded.