Trump took advantage of working-class discontent over inflation and immigration. usa elections

All over the world, barring a few exceptions, governments of democratic countries lose elections. Following the pandemic and the most intense wave of inflation in four decades, discontent has spread across broad strata of the population and is spreading through social networks. If there is anyone who is capable of channeling frustration it is none other than Donald Trump. The Republicans have won a landslide victory in the United States presidential elections, free of scandals, by scapegoating the losses caused by price gouging and mass immigration for almost all ills. It has relied on the vote of low-income citizens without a university education, with support from the working class spanning from whites to Latinos and African Americans.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have pulled off the most pro-union mandate in the history of the United States. The President also participated in a strike in support of automobile workers and his government mediated on behalf of workers in other labor conflicts. However, the lower classes have turned their backs on the Democratic Party, which has historically been their protector along the traditional axis of left and right. In fact, it is no longer so much about left or right: voters have punished governments of both parties almost every time they go to the polls. This has happened in recent years in Germany, in the United Kingdom, in Portugal, in Brazil, in Argentina, in Italy, in the French legislative elections…

Trump’s demagogue populism has been stronger than political tradition. The former president, a lover of hyperbole, has been saying for nearly four years that the United States is going to hell. He has painted an apocalyptic portrait of a country headed for destruction that has little to do with reality, but is perpetuated with the help of the conservative media, led by Fox News.

Republicans had some compelling arguments. It’s got a thriving economy, with almost no unemployment and inflation under control, but in the four years of Joe Biden’s mandate, prices have risen by more than 20%. Economists have emphasized that inflation has particularly hit voters with lower purchasing power, as the price of basic products such as food and gasoline has increased, in a country where cars are available only in a few large cities. .

The question with which Ronald Reagan put the finishing touches to Jimmy Carter in the only presidential debate of the 1980 elections has been reworked: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” People don’t remember that four years ago, amid the pandemic, the economy was in recession, thousands of people were dying, unemployment was skyrocketing and the situation in the country was chaotic. But you remember how much it cost you to go shopping, fill the gas tank or go out to dinner a while ago.

multi-caste alliance

“Trump and his campaign leaders believed it was possible to use Republicans’ growing strength among white working-class voters to build a multi-racial working-class coalition. He was right,” said William A. Galston said this Wednesday. Economic uncertainty and frustration over price increases have particularly punished Latinos and African Americans, among whom Trump has gained ground while maintaining his white base.

This is great news for the Republican Party. In an increasingly ethnically diverse country, its heavy reliance on the white vote put it in an inferior position to the Democrats. If he manages to maintain or expand that new support, the changes seen in Tuesday’s polls “could signal a new era in American politics,” according to Galston. Danielle Alvarez said, “President Donald Trump received historic support from Hispanic voters because he never wavered on the issues that matter most to our community: reducing costs, restoring the economy, restoring American prosperity, closing the border. To secure and protect the country and abroad.” a Republican Party consultant said in a statement.

Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent ally of the Democrats, reflected on what happened this Wednesday. He said, “It shouldn’t be too surprising that a Democratic Party that has abandoned the working class finds that the working class has abandoned them.”

Economically, the promise of sweeping tax cuts (some a la carte, such as tax breaks on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits) has worked, as have the promise of massive tariffs on imports. Economists warn that such protectionism will lead to inflation, but workers see it as a way to protect themselves against the excesses of globalization.

xenophobic messages

Trump has also reiterated his commitment to the xenophobic message that brought him to the White House in the 2016 elections, once again giving him the raw material to work with. The influx of irregular immigrants has increased sharply during Joe Biden’s tenure, causing problems for some communities across the country. No, they don’t eat dogs and cats, nor are they responsible for all crimes, but Republicans have used shocking testimony from some actual victims to turn a handful of cases into categories.

The president-elect has also used immigrants as a scapegoat for economic difficulties, although the reality is the opposite. They keep jobs, they make housing more expensive, they strain public services, they keep federal funding for emergencies: it doesn’t matter whether it’s a hoax or reality, the important thing is that. The message resonates, even among settled Latinos about the right to vote.

With his extremist messages, Trump chose to mobilize his followers and attract new disaffected voters who otherwise would not have gone to the polls, rather than softening his speech to appeal to centrists. It has worked for him.

Among new voters, Trump has been particularly successful not only among whites, but also among young men. You are connected to them through programs podcasters A success like Joe Rogan, to whom he gave a three-hour interview at a rally even at the cost of making his followers wait for two hours. They have also adopted cryptocurrencies, an asset in which many of these youth invest.

Trump also has tremendous charisma. He is a star, a showman, who is capable of saying any outrageous thing in his rallies, which has no effect on him. A billionaire, despite being a friend of billionaires, he still has an anti-establishment aura that helps him in times of discontent. November 5 has largely been a referendum on two candidates rather than an election between them. And he has won it.

electoral advantage

Data and surveys show where its vote reserves lie and where its position has improved the most compared to 2020. The test’s data shows it improved its net results by 9.5 points in counties where the population is more than 25% Latino and by 4.1 points in counties where the population is more than 25% Latino. In those where the percentage of black population is higher than that. It has also been particularly strong among those with less than 20% of the population having higher education, in which it received a score of 4.8. And among the larger population between 18 and 34 years of age, it has increased by 5.6 points.

Exit polling data completes this picture. A CNN poll shows that, surprisingly, Trump may have won more votes among women than men, closing a gender gap that appeared to be widening. “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other,” former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said at a 2016 campaign rally. Many women have decided not to help Harris. The margin in his favor may have shrunk from 15 points over Biden in 2020 to just 10 on Tuesday, although the figures should be taken with caution, as the survey results do not appear to be entirely consistent with the final tally.

The same poll indicates that Trump has reduced his loss among voters aged 18 to 29 from 24 to 13 points, with a technical tie in the case of men. In addition to Trump’s success in wooing them, many young leftists have turned their backs on the Democratic Party over the Gaza war.

Where this survey indicates a more notable change is in the Latino vote, where the gap has narrowed by 25 points from 33 to just 8 and among men, Trump is ahead. To a lesser extent, this improvement is related to another improvement of 14 points among non-white non-university voters, consistent with a continued lead among non-university whites. And big improvements among low- and middle-income voters are also going in the same direction (12 points in the bracket up to $50,000 per year and 17 points among voters with incomes of 50,000 to 100,000 euros). Harris, on the other hand, has been the leader among people with income over $100,000.

But if there is one thing that is emphasized, it is the difference between the countryside and the city. According to the CNN survey, Trump has increased his advantage in rural areas from 15 points in 2020 to 27 points in 2024, while in cities the Democrat is improving from 22 to 23 points. Furthermore, the suburbs have become Trumpist, going from a double-digit disadvantage to a margin in favor of the same amount.

As political scientist Steven Levitsky puts it, data on income and urbanization levels show how the traditional parameters of the left-right fracture have blown up and the competition has become more established between cosmopolitanism and ethnocentrism, which is “official. Also throws light on “anti-humor”. Which is spreading all over the world.

Trump has played his cards well. His messages on immigration and the economy are extreme, but he has softened his stance on abortion, an issue that was very beneficial to Democrats in the 2022 legislative elections, following the Supreme Court decision that struck down it as a federal right. Had given. He has portrayed his opponent as a radical leftist with a culture wars that mobilizes his voters. He has even been able to exploit his scandals, allegations, trials and convictions, portraying himself as a martyr of oppression and cementing his anti-establishment image. Xenophobia, fraud, demagoguery and populism, along with the breeding ground of discontent, have given him the keys to the White House.