Turkey threatens military intervention against Israel

These statements represent another step in the dialectical escalation that has previously led Erdogan to praise Hamas as a “liberation organization” and resistance movement against European assessments and to refer to Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as “worse than” Hitler. “They remind us of Hitler,” he said, and he has drafted a law that makes it possible to imprison journalists and scientists in Turkey who allegedly work for “foreign interests.”

Moreover, in mid-July, Erdogan warned that his country would no longer accept cooperation between NATO and Israel, at least not until a lasting peace was established in the Palestinian territories. This weekend’s threat of invasion followed along the same lines.

Israel, for its part, has reacted promptly to Turkey’s new threat. Foreign Minister Israel Katz noted in X that “Erdogan is following in Saddam Hussein’s footsteps and threatening to attack Israel; I just want to remember what happened there and how it ended.” In 2003, US troops invaded Iraq and the military operation led to the overthrow of the then Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Three years later, Hussein was assassinated by Kurds and Shiites.

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Relations between Israel and Turkey have deteriorated dramatically since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 and its subsequent response. Now, after a deadly rocket launch from Lebanon against a village in the Golan Heights, the Israeli security cabinet has given the green light for a military response against the Hezbollah militia and Turkey is taking a hard line against that strategy, raising concerns in Europe.

After all, and as a result of the migrant retention agreement that the EU has signed with Turkey, without Erdogan’s support, the tens, possibly hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers who now remain on Turkish territory will once again destabilize European politics. Germany is a particularly vulnerable country within the EUdue to the large population of Turkish origin. The number of Erdogan’s supporters in Germany is a factor that determines the outcome of elections in Turkey, as shown in previous elections. Turkiye is also a NATO member country as an interface country between East and West; a possible shift towards the Shanghai Group around Russia, China and Iran would cause a very damaging geopolitical earthquake for the alliance.

Erdogan did not provide any details in his speech about what a Turkish intervention might look like, nor is there any evidence that his defense ministry has any plans for this purpose. Turkey is a leader in manufacturing weapons for its low-cost and high-performance drones, so it is reasonable to suspect that they will play a key role in the alleged intervention. Its flagship, the Bayraktar TB2, has proven highly effective on the battlefields of Ukraine, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Selcuk Bayraktar, general director of Baykar Technologies, says he has already exported the model to 33 countries.

The AKP meeting in Rize was all about the progress of Turkey’s arms industry and Erdogan has surprised his own government by publicly offering a target: Israel. He can afford it because Turkey’s change to a presidential system, which took place six years ago, has given Erdogan unprecedented powerWeakening the separation of powers and the independence of institutions.

The decision-making process now essentially gathers at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, which is also subject to pressure from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), led by the far-right nationalist and Islamist leader Devlet Bahceli and supported by the Grey Wolves.

With just over 5% of the vote, he has been an ally of Erdogan since 2015 and has exerted his influence ever since. Bahçeli has called for tough measures against the pro-Kurdish DEM party after elections in late March, and has energised Erdogan’s approach to the CHP in opposition. On 15 July, the anniversary of Gulen’s coup attempt, Bahçeli visited a special police unit and the commander kissed his hand in greeting. Although the gesture is not uncommon in Turkey, to show respect for elders, the symbolism has not escaped anyone.