Ukraine is trapped on land, but wins at sea – DW – 02/18/2024

On the night of Wednesday, February 14, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that the Russian warship Caesar Kunikov had sunk off the coast of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Intelligence services also released a video showing the explosion and subsequent fire.

Of course, this sinking in the Black Sea, a key battlefield in the war launched by Russia in February 2022, is not Ukraine’s first military success. While it is true that both sides see how the fighting on land seems stable, the reality indicates that Ukraine managed to break Russian dominance at sea.

Avoid dandruff control step by step

Things were not looking good when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The data shows that Vladimir Putin’s forces had a huge military advantage over its neighbor. Their Black Sea Fleet immediately blockaded Ukrainian ports, captured the strategic Serpents Island, and mined large portions of the sea, isolating Ukraine from the rest of the planet, at least in appearance.

But gradually Ukrainian forces are freeing themselves from the blockade. The first step was taken in April 2022, when they sank the Russian fleet’s lead ship Moskva in the Black Sea. Then in July of the same year the island of Las Serpientes was recaptured. Additionally, the invaders’ ships, ports, and supply routes came under regular attacks.

In July 2023, Ukraine attacked the Kerch Bridge, which connects the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula, illegally occupied by Russia since 2014, to the Russian mainland. In October 2023, due to Ukrainian pressure, Russia finally had to withdraw most of its fleet from Sevastopol to the eastern waters of the Black Sea. However, even there their ships are being harassed, as we saw when a landing craft was seriously damaged in the port of Novorossiysk, about 300 kilometers east of Sevastopol.

“Ukrainian successes show that the Russians cannot adequately protect themselves against anti-ship artillery and drones,” Stephen Blank, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told DW in September 2023. “What’s more, they don’t really seem to be able to respond to the threat that Ukraine poses to them.” Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, A think tank Based in Washington, it shows that Russia has lost about 40 percent of its naval tonnage in the Black Sea since February 2022.

“Creative” use of drones and rockets

Ukraine achieved these military victories through an unusual combination of weapons, retired US Navy officer Mark Cancian wrote in the magazine. foreign Affairs, Part of its arsenal is made up of anti-ship missiles – some built by the Ukrainians themselves, others provided by the West – with a range of up to 200 kilometres. These were designed to be launched from the sea, but the Ukrainian military modified them to be fired from protected areas on land.

Ukrainian naval drones – small, explosive-laden and unmanned – have proven difficult to detect and destroy. The range of these drones is up to 800 kilometers. Equipped with video and remotely operated, they can be used in a variety of missions, taking evasive measures and changing targets on the fly if necessary.

Ukraine developed the Magura V5 naval drone on its own and continued to improve it throughout the war. Now in mass production, these drones are often dispatched in swarms, making them even more difficult to defend against. For the Cancian, this creative combination of different weapons systems has allowed Ukrainian forces to sink or seriously damage not only the Moskva and two other frigates, but also five landing craft and a submarine.

Strategic benefits for Ukraine

In many ways, these successes have relieved pressures elsewhere. At the beginning of the invasion, the Russian ground campaign threatened the Odessa area. However, according to Blank, Ukraine’s ability to keep Russian ships away from the waters of the western Black Sea “makes it more difficult for Russia to maintain its logistics ability to resupply its troops in southern Ukraine”. In return, Ukraine has been able to send troops that were initially supposed to defend the south to other sectors of the Eastern Front.

These developments have also had a significant impact on Ukrainian grain exports. By July 2022 the United Nations was able to reach an agreement with Russia to partially lift its naval blockade and allow Ukraine to export limited amounts of grain from the port of Odessa. A year later, Russia withdrew from the agreement and threatened to attack any merchant ships sailing to Ukraine.

But this never happened. While Ukraine began exporting by rail, it did not take long for ships to cross the Black Sea again, and by December 2023, export volumes exceeded those reached under the UN-sponsored deal.

Western aid is crucial

Ukraine will not be able to win the war merely by changing the military balance in the Black Sea. The situation on the ground is so complex that it is not possible to achieve change on such a large scale. However, according to Cancian, it could allow Ukraine to negotiate from a more advantageous position if peace talks ever take place. Until then, Ukraine will continue to rely on its Western partners for arms, especially missiles and artillery ammunition.

This is the only way for Ukrainian forces to continue to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet under control. Otherwise, the surprising successes achieved may soon be exposed.

(dzc/rr)