US Voting: Harris three weeks ahead of Trump | USA Elections

Just 21 days after voting, Kamala Harris is still ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House. According to polls collected by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregator, the Democratic candidate has been improving her position by a tenth to a tenth during recent weeks. Now you have a 48.4% to gain the presidency, against 46.9% Republican’s.

President Joe Biden did not reach this margin of advantage for nearly a year. When he announced his withdrawal as a candidate on July 21, he was 3.1 points behind former President Trump, whose forecasts were barely affected by his presence in court cases compared to allegations of fraud or election interference.

Nor did Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal or his decision to endorse the veteran have any significant impact on the race. Though there were initially fears of a vote shift, it did not materialize in the election the new York Times

They point out that it is unclear which candidate will have an advantage and indicate that Kennedy supporters are less likely to vote in November.

Favorite for 11 surveyors and 23 states

Harris is the favorite 11 out of 15 pollutants The results of which are compiled by the CPR, with the advantage reaching up to 4 points. Four houses That gives Trump a victory range of between 1 and 3 points. The state’s position also shows how tight the electoral contest still is: Democrats will have 23 states in their favor, to a greater or lesser extent, than 27 states According to The Economist forecast, the Republicans’ stakes will be Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

To know what happens outside is to understand what will happen inside, don’t miss anything.

keep reading

Harris has also established herself as the favorite on Metaculus, a community of thousands of users dedicated to making predictions and which has the best history of success. From July 20 to 21, the candidate’s chance of becoming the next president rose from 17% to 35%. Since August 8, it has barely moved at all 55%,

Trump, who had reached a high of 75% before Biden’s comeback, is now 46%

,

Follow all the information about the elections in the United States Our weekly newsletter,