Vienna for science and real risks

They are a boon to science because they provide a window into the history of the origins of the solar system and the formation of the Earth, but asteroids also pose a real danger because of the consequences of their collisions, a fatality far removed from the fascination they generate, thanks in part to science fiction cinema.

To raise public awareness of the risks and the measures that would be taken around the world if there was a real threat of one of these objects reaching Earth, the United Nations has designated June 30 as International Asteroid Day, a date that marks the anniversary of the giant meteorite impact in Tunguska, Russia, which occurred in 1908 and devastated an area of ​​several thousand square kilometers.

NASA has already managed to deflect the orbit of an asteroid (Dimorphos) by crashing a probe into it, and the world’s major space agencies are already implementing or planning several scientific missions to study some of these objects and try to deliver samples to Earth. — or “planetary protection.” Researcher Raúl de la Fuente Marcos from the Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics at the Complutense University of Madrid emphasized that the collision of asteroids and comets with the Earth is very common in films and literature, “but this is far from the case. the subject of science fiction,” and noted that scientific evidence showed that these events “have happened in the past, are happening now, and will happen again in the future.”

De la Fuente is part of the group Space astronomy: scientific research, instrumentation and operation of space missions. is involved in numerous scientific projects to understand the extent that some of these impacts may have on Earth, and assures that every year several “superballs” are discovered that penetrate the atmosphere and explode and disintegrate or reach the ground (meteorites).

Impact

The researcher lists several such episodes that have occurred in recent years. “We know these impacts will happen again, and both NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) have warning systems for Earth impacts,” but he argues that existing forecast systems indicate there is no evidence that an impact will occur. have “regional or global” consequences over the next hundred years.

Yes, there will be impacts that could have “local” consequences, and on a regular basis, the researcher clarified and pointed to an object (2010 RF12) about 10 meters in size, which could collide with our planet with a probability of 10.%, between 2095 and 2122. There are others, also well cataloged, with much larger sizes that could cause damage on a regional and even global level, such as asteroid 29075 (1950 DA), about 1300 meters, but the probability of an impact with Earth in 2880 is 0 .38 percent; or the famous asteroid 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36), 490 meters, although the probability of its collision with our planet between 2178 and 2290 is 0.57%.

“The greatest danger comes not from known asteroids, but from those that have yet to be discovered.” The researcher recalls that the Chelyabinsk asteroid was not discovered before it fell, and therefore emphasizes the importance of having scientific and technical programs and planetary defense missions. but also a mitigation strategy on the spot in the event of an impact, including evacuation plans.

According to scientists, there are about 10,000 known asteroids larger than 140 meters, of which only 10% are known to be smaller and only 0.1% are known to be the size of the Chelyabinsk asteroid (about 20 meters), and that the atmosphere does not always act as a “protective shield” since larger objects are unlikely to be affected upon entering it.