Von der Leyen to the Commission and Costa to the Council: First outline of social democrats and populists for EU positions | International

The rise of the extreme right in France and Germany – the driving force of the EU – in the European elections is killing the appetite of leaders for political battles over the distribution of major positions in the Community club. The heads of state and government of the two main parties (the Populists and the Social Democrats) are moving to close the deal and appoint a tandem that satisfies them both: the German conservative Ursula von der Leyen, to repeat as head of the European Commission, and the Portuguese socialist António Costa, to lead the European Council. This is explained by Community sources, who clarify that this first outline is still subject to change. With those two main positions, the favorite to become high representative for foreign and security policy is Kaja Kallas, prime minister of Estonia, from the liberal family. Finally, the Maltese Roberta Metsola, of the European People’s Party (EPP), will remain president of the European Parliament for half of the legislature.

Although the groups have been in constant contact for several weeks, the first opportunity to put names on the table will be at a dinner in Brussels on June 17. There the distribution will be finalized, which should take into account not only the balance of political forces, but also gender and regional balance. There may be last-minute surprises, like in 2019, when everything collapsed and Ursula von der Leyen emerged, then German defense minister and who was not on anyone’s radar, but talks between the two blocs have advanced a lot, according to European sources.

The Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, negotiate on behalf of the social democrats; for the populists it is the Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the Polish Donald Tusk; the liberals are represented by Kallas and the Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo. Again, it’s all about balance. Each of the 27 countries has a representative in the Community executive, whether it be one of the senior officials or a commissioner’s position. And Scholz will propose von der Leyen as the German representative. It is she who will allow the gears to be set in motion and to agree on the distribution by groups.

Populists would love to see the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, lead the European Council – the body that brings together the leaders of the 27 member states – for her very combative positions on security and defense, but also for her tough stance on immigration. They are concerned that the Portuguese Costa, who has been preparing for a European post for years, faces a court case for which he has resigned (although the investigation is dwindling at the moment). Meanwhile, the French Emmanuel Macron has toyed with the idea of ​​promoting other candidates for the European Commission in exchange for more favors and promises of guarantees from von der Leyen, but he has emerged from the European elections very weak and now community distribution is not your priority.

However, the leaders’ dinner next Monday is only a first step, a first estimate. The final list of names will probably be released at the summit at the end of the month. Also, except for the Council president, the rest of the appointments must get the green light from the European Parliament. And that is not guaranteed.

The presidency of the European Commission, the fixed gear to activate the EU machinery – and which has become even more important in recent days – will have to obtain 361 votes out of 720 of the new European Parliament. And if it is von der Leyen, for example, it is not enough for her to have popular MEPs (190), who are not even confirmed in the secret ballot process – for example, the French Republicans have said they are not going to support her; in addition, she will need the social democrats and the liberals of Renew, to whom she has already extended her hand. To be more comfortable, you can turn to the Greens, who have been receptive.

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However, social democrats, liberals and Greens have warned von der Leyen that, if she persists in her approach to the extreme right – as she has done with the far-right Giorgia Meloni – she will lose support in the European Parliament. The Popular Party does not want a formal alliance with the far right, but they refuse to close the door to temporary alliances with extreme parties that they find acceptable, such as the Meloni Brothers of Italy, a political formation of fascist inspiration, but which does not achieve anything in Europe.

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