What can we expect in the Formula 1 race in Austin today after the sprint?
Back on track to winning the 2024 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix Sprint Race and moving closer to pole in Austin, Max Verstappen biggest favorite to take his fourth straight victory at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin.
But due to George Russell’s crash in the closing stages of Q3, Verstappen’s title rival Lando Norris will start from pole after doing what he determined to be best lap of his career in the decisive session at the beginning of the third quarter.
However, the data shows that Ferrari is likely where Verstappen’s biggest threat lies.
As we will show, those of Horse They are not only happy to be fighting on a “normal” track, as Carlos Sainz said at the press conference after qualifying. They believe they can really win on Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas.
“What if…” Austin qualifying for Verstappen and Sainz
Russell’s spectacular crash at the penultimate corner of the final stage of Q3 wiped out any improvement, but there is plenty of evidence that Verstappen would have beaten Norris for pole on Saturday afternoon had that not happened.
First, Norris insisted that he set the bar “too high because on the second lap I said to myself, ‘Guys, I don’t think I’m going to get much better here.’ This combined with Verstappen beating him by 0.172 seconds in the first sector with laps incomplete.
But Norris was a full half a second quicker in sector 2 in the early runs compared to Verstappen, so he may have been closer than many thought.
Russell’s accident overshadowed the real picture of qualifying
Sainz also somewhat regretted Russell’s accident as “he did a very fast lap” when yellow flags. “I was going to be on par with these two riders, but whether I beat them or not, I don’t know,” he added. “But since I was in the fight, I feel a little bad.”
In fact, Sainz was just 0.151 seconds slower than Verstappen in the first sector with a personal best, but equaled what Norris achieved on his pole lap in the first sector. Sainz later wondered if the “lower track temperature” was the reason why “the car came to life”.
Given that the McLaren F1 cars seemed to struggle to prevent the rear tires from overheating in sector 3, where Verstappen could pull away from Norris on every lap during the sprint race chase as his RB20 he now has a calm balance that allows him to “drive with what the car allows” – lowering the temperature as night falls would also improve the MCL38.
The RB20 looked so happy that, from the looks of it, it appeared to be back to its best form of dominating Formula 1 since the start of 2024.
But Norris nevertheless praised the way McLaren had “improved the car a little bit” with changes to its set-up after the sprint race. According to the team manager, the focus is on how the team “understood how to adapt to the wind.” Andrea Stella.
It was this aspect that made the Italian fear that Austin would be the trail of the remaining six in a 2024 title battle in which he had hoped MCL38 “there will be more problems.”
Why Ferrari looks so strong in the race but should avoid friendly fire in Austin
Ferrari could pose the biggest threat to Verstappen if its drivers don’t brake each other.
Verstappen’s sprint win was his first since winning the sprint at Austria’s Red Bull Ring in June and continues his unbeaten streak of sprint wins this year. He RB20 He looked so convincing that he seemed to be back to his best form and dominate Formula 1 by the start of 2024.
But the stopwatch tells a slightly different story, especially when it comes to his winning margin in the Austin sprint. His time this Saturday was just 3.9 seconds, compared to Hamilton’s 9.5 seconds at the same sprint track in 2023.
On a hot Saturday afternoon this year, Verstappen posted an average lap time of 1:38.154 seconds over the final 14 laps of the sprint. The reason for this calculation is that on this lap, Sainz finally passed his teammate Charles Leclerc into third place behind Norris.
The Ferrari drivers fought hard in the early stages of the sprint but did not relinquish positions in the first two places. In fact, Sainz was able to catch and overtake Norris on the final lap, where the Briton was almost passed by Leclerc if not for his aggressive defending at Turn 15. This was investigated after the race, but without sanctions.
Sainz’s average result when he beat Leclerc in the sprint was just nine thousandths higher than Verstappen. Leclerc, running a close fourth in the sprint, was just 32 thousandths slower each time (the average we used takes into account missing the last lap after the battle with Norris). That’s what’s so encouraging about Ferrari’s prospects in Sunday’s race.
While Sainz insisted he didn’t “agree” that his battle with Leclerc cost Ferrari the opportunity to chase Verstappen in the sprint, there’s no denying that Pirelli They hate temperature spikes like those SF-24 in their hand-to-hand combat.
An example of this is the Mercedes team, which failed in qualifying in Austin and Hamilton crashed out in the first quarter, so they even offered their improved parts for Russell’s refurbished car. “But we’re not going to trade him,” Russell rejected the offer.
The Mercedes drivers suffered in the sprint race after putting too much pressure on their tires early in the race.
In the sprint race, Russell himself appeared to be heading for victory from the start as he battled and disposed of the Ferraris in the early stages and also briefly challenged Norris at Turn 12. At the finish he was 8.8 seconds behind Leclerc. Hamilton was already well behind and faced a large gap with Ferrari, which his teammate eventually fell into.
Mercedes experts suggest this was a direct consequence of their drivers pushing too hard on the medium tires in the early stages, with Russell overtaking and defending later, Hamilton simply trying to keep up with the Ferrari drivers at the start.
“The reality is that we are fighting this weekend,” said Sainz when asked by Motorsport.com how pleased he and Ferrari were to be strong on a track very different from Monza-Baku-Singaporewhere they have historically shone in this era of regulation. “I can’t say the same about Zandvoort and Spa, the last proper circuits we went to. Good positive progress.”
But Leclerc went further after qualifying fourth, saying that “if we see the same race pace as in the sprint, victory is certainly possible.”
Although history and his determination say otherwise, the Dutchman may decide that discretion is the better part of courage.
However, there are two big obstacles in Ferrari’s way. First up, Norris: his average sprint time was 1:38.351s, 0.2s slower than Verstappen’s pace. But he spent the entire race in dirty air and learned his lesson about tire destruction. He said this is exactly what happened to him in the first corner on the last lap when Sainz overtook him.
There were mitigating circumstances in the way Norris’s medium tyres, like those of rivals Red Bull and Ferrari, were used in sprint qualifying. But he completed an extra lap on Friday night, which was a factor in their demotion.
The clean air, coupled with progress in setting up the car to cope with the wind gusts, which are always strong here, means Sainz and Leclerc may find it more difficult to overtake the McLaren in Sunday’s race. Norris will likely have to be aggressive in Turn 1 as well, as the left-hander’s sharp rise has seen plenty of action in the past and Verstappen will surely be unable to resist what will be a near-definitive title move for him. . either candidate if they end up touching each other.
It will be interesting to see how Verstappen approaches Turn 1 now that he starts behind Norris.
But, although history and his decisive character say otherwise, the Dutchman could decide that discretion is the best part of courage. And his car also changed after the sprint race, which could have upset Ferrari’s hopes.
Verstappen switched to one of Red Bull’s biggest rear wings, which explains the time lost in the second sector in the first round of Q3 against Norris. About this Helmut MarkoAdvisor to Red Bull Motorsport, said: “We went into preparation for the race.”
This race will inevitably come down to a battle for the tires on a day that is expected to be even hotter than Saturday given the lack of cloud skies forecast for southeast of Austin.
This will likely make things worse for Mercedes as W15 They will still have to fight in hotter conditions, but overall it makes a double stop almost inevitable as it comes with a relatively small pit stop time loss of 20 seconds.
Taking into account how hard tires in the first practice (to the surprise of Pirelli, nine of the ten teams fielded their drivers with them in this session) the Italian manufacturer predicts that the most likely strategy is medium-hard-medium for the best pilots.
But Motorsport.com understands many teams are relying on inspiration in 2023, when the best strategy was medium-medium-firm. McLaren even reserved an extra set of wheels and ultimately decided not to use them.
However, a major resurfacing of the track means lap times will drop by about two seconds, so there’s likely to be more trouble under the Texas sun for those hoping for an exact repeat of last year.
Look: THIS IS HOW THE GRID LOOKED AT THE US GP.