What do analysts say about dividends and the strategic plan?

Repsol shares were depreciated by the strong IBEX 35 30 percent increase in dividends announced by the oil company, which will pay up to 0.9 euros per share in 2024, a figure that will increase by 3 percent annually.

In addition to this award, Repsol announced a share buyback of up to €5.4 billion, which will distribute up to €10 billion to its shareholders over the next four years.

Translated into analyst jargon, this figure equates to an allocation of 25 to 35 percent of the cash flow generated by operating activities. This amount will amount to 29 billion euros over four years (2024-2027), covered by the new strategic plan presented by the oil company.

Repsol’s priority is shareholders

The road map presented by Repsol in its new strategic plan shows that “the priority is shareholder profit”, he said. Barclays.

On the same line Sabadell Bank He highlighted Repsol’s potential and its “generous policy” of rewarding shareholders, which also includes the energy transition process in which the group is immersed.

This is a strategic update that “further enhances attractive returns for shareholders,” he noted in the same vein. YBS. The company is “progressing faster than its peers while delivering industry-leading returns,” the Swiss bank said.

Analysts at R4 Banco also had reservations about dividends. “The company continues to demonstrate an outstanding financial position to meet the challenges of the future and continue to pursue a generous policy of rewarding shareholders,” they noted.

Relevant settlements for Repsol shareholders

The gasoline that accelerated the positive response to Repsol’s dividend was the 29 billion euros the oil company offered as a guide to operating cash flow, a figure that was higher than UBS analysts’ expectations of 28 billion.

Reading between the lines, Repsol will have more cash to distribute to its shareholders due to higher profits in the mining sector and “faster customer and industry growth than we expected,” the Swiss bank added.

Since capital expenditure (capex, jargon) will remain capped at €16,000-19,000 million, and since Repsol does not intend to make any related purchases, there are limited risks that this €29,000 million guidance for the flow will not be met. operating cash, which ultimately forms the basis of dividends.

Calculating these numbers, analysts Jeffries They concluded that in a central scenario, with a 28 percent operating cash flow distribution, Repsol would generate an annual return to its shareholders of 12 percent, including cash dividends plus buybacks.

Repsol’s ability to deliver on those plans will now depend on the oil company’s ability to manage and rotate its asset portfolio well, Jeffries warned, as its cash flow after fixed investment barely reaches the balance sheet point.

Reverse bullish trend pattern in Repsol

From a technical point of view, after the correction that began in September, “the price of Repsol has formed a return pattern (shoulder, head, inverted shoulder), confirmed by exceeding 14,165 euros,” the company’s analysts say. I.G..

The price could now reach 14.75 euros and then an all-time high of 15.2 euros, he said. Josep Codinadirector of analysis for Inversión magazine on the financial markets podcast “Relevant Facts.”

“A recovery process has begun that could raise the Repsol share price to at least 15.18 euros,” IG agreed with the diagnosis. Below, the area of ​​focus is the €13.48 support.

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