What happened in Austria? Five graphs of the success of the far right. international

The Freedom Party (FPÖ) is the most voted force in Austria for the first time. The Ultra Party received 29.2% of the vote, surpassing the conservatives of the ÖVP (26.5%) and the social democrats of the SPV (21%), currently in the executive. We analyze the results in five keys.

The extreme right achieved its biggest success, but not its first

The FPÖ has been in the Austrian parliament for decades and has participated in several national executive positions. The last time was in 2017, when he supported the ÖVP’s Christian Democrats for the coalition that ended the “Ibiza-affair” scandal.

The Ultra Party has won more than 20% of the vote in three different cycles. It reached 27% in the late nineties, it reached 26% in 2017 and now it has increased to 29% in 2024.

The far right’s gains match the poor results of the two major traditional parties. The Social Democrats repeated their worst-ever result and did not improve on 2019’s 21%. The Conservatives have fallen nine points and are also reaching their historic low.

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FPÖ wins almost half of Austria’s municipalities

Five years ago, ÖVP conservatives won practically the entire country, but now the map has been painted the dark blue of FPÖ militants. Eurosceptics have won in 980 municipalities, especially in the Carinthia region in the south, where they have won 9 out of 10 municipalities.

The right-wing FPÖ has won in small and medium-sized municipalities, but not in large cities. In municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants – with Vienna at the head – the socialists have the first force.

The far right wins among youth and takes the lead in the 35-59 age group

According to recent surveys, people over 60 are the only group that has not given the FPÖ a victory and has largely chosen the conservatives over the ÖVP. However, it is necessary to highlight the variability of the extreme right, which receives many votes of all stripes.

the surveys were accurate

The polling average predicted the victory of the FPÖ and the ranking of all major parties. He slightly underestimated the Ultra Party and the Conservatives, but with no error by more than two points.

and what more?

The election results leave only a small majority numerically possible. The two main options go through the other force, the ÖVP’s Christian Democrats: they could combine the required 92 seats with the extreme right or the Socialists. They governed with the former in 2017, but conservatives and social democrats had governed together several times before.