What if the threat on the other side of the strait was not Morocco but Algeria?

The conflict between Morocco and Algeria has been going on for years, which, despite its ups and downs, represents a real source of tension in North Africa and there is no sign that it will subside, on the contrary. In fact, both countries have begun increasing military spending with no end in sight. If Russia is the main supplier of arms to Algeria, the United States and Israel are mainly to the Alawite Kingdom, although other countries also sell arms to both armies.

Thus, although military spending in North African countries as a whole is set to reach $28.5 billion in 2023, up 38% compared to 2022, Morocco and Algeria represent 82% of all military spending in the region and more than 45.5% of Africa as a whole. do ($51.6 billion). Both are far from the defense efforts of the rest of the countries in the North African subregion, although the potential shown by Algeria is much greater.

Algiers allocates a total of $18.3 billion to its armed forces in 2023, what does it represent 76% increase in just one year, This is the largest increase in military spending in Algeria’s history. In contrast, Morocco notably reduced its defense allocation by 2.5% for the second consecutive year, leaving it at $5.2 billion. This figure, in any case, is barely more than the 3.7 billion allocated by Rabat for its defense five years ago, on the eve of the worsening of disagreements with Algeria, which led the two countries to suspend their relations. In 2021, diplomats are taking part in a kind of arms race.

The rivalry between the two neighbors is now shifting in favor of Algeria in the region., Former French colony already increases Morocco’s military effort by just over 3.5After Rabat abandoned the trend of increasing defense expenditure displayed in previous years.

Since 1974, Algeria had not experienced as much annual growth in these goods as 2023, The Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies (SIPRI), which draws its figures from data updated this week, concludes that “the growth was driven by a sharp increase in earnings from gas exports to European (old continent) countries.” Found.” ) moved away from Russian supplies.

comparison with spain

Strong Algerian progress has driven above-average growth of 38% a year in North Africa as a whole. The huge jump is evident when comparing this to that experienced by the subregion as a whole since 2014, which is no more than 41%, indicating that most of the growth experienced over the past decade has been concentrated in the past year.

Data presented by SIPRIIt is considered a benchmark in measuring global military spending, which is not limited to aggregating what different governments consider in their defense budgets. For example, their balance sheets also include other items, such as spending on pensions and military social services. Keeping in mind the set of concepts managed by a non-profit organization, It turns out that Morocco’s military effort ($5.2 billion per year) does not reach a quarter of that made by Spain ($22.2 billion)., Specifically, this is equivalent to just over 23.4% of the European country. Algeria, on the other hand, already accounts for more than the equivalent of 82.4% of Spanish military spending.

The increase in military strength that Algeria has seen in recent months, while Morocco has reduced its military strength, has already been reflected in other previous assessments. This is the case for measurements made by the unit Global Fire Power (GFP), which has been reflecting this distinct development in recent years.

Across Africa, military spending is set to rise to $51.6 billion in 2023 after increasing 22% that year. Thus, the subregion comprising North Africa, with more than 22% of total defense efforts, leads the way across the continent.

But why is there so much rivalry between the two countries? LA RAZON journalist Goyo G. According to Maestro, the main issue was the recognition of the Polisario Front and an independent Sahara as a nation by Algiers, an unimaginable scenario in the Alawite kingdom. The Algerian government has in the past accused Rabat of being expansionist and trying to reclaim its traditional spheres of influence in a dispute that has to do with artificial borders drawn at the end of the decolonization period. The claims of both states erupted in the Sand War in 1963, which, far from resolving border disputes, escalated the conflict in Western Sahara.

Since 1994, when a terrorist attack occurred at a hotel in Marrakesh, the land border between the two countries has been closed at the request of the Algerian regime., an irreversible decision to this day. The heads of state have not held official talks since Mohammed VI and the late Bouteflika met at the Arab League summit in Algiers in 2005.

But there are other factors that explain how tensions have increased, which are reflected in commercial and military decisions. The final blow was dealt by Algiers by vetoing the entry into the country of goods that previously passed through Moroccan ports, interpreted in Morocco as an attempt to benefit Spanish ports amid the deterioration in relations between Madrid and Went. Algiers.

In 2021, Algeria announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Morocco, describing the position as “absurd” and based on “false and unfair pretexts”. Tensions subsequently increased over Algeria’s decision to close its airspace to Moroccan aircraft and to cut off the Euro-Maghrebi Gas Pipeline that supplies natural gas to Spain through Moroccan territory, in response to pressure against its western neighbor. as a means and in an attempt to recover his diplomatic influence lost in the region during the years of former President Bouteflika’s illness.

Tensions escalated further when Morocco’s ambassador to the United Nations came on August 15, 2023, to call for minorities in the Algerian region of Kabyle to have the right to self-determination. Algiers has always rejected any independence campaign in the Berber-speaking region of Kabylia.