Representatives from about 200 countries will participate in the 29th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku (Azerbaijan) between this Monday and 22 November. This is a new round of negotiations to keep the flame of international climate action alive. Setting new quantitative global targets on climate finance for both the rich world and developing countries (to mitigate or adapt to warming) is the main point of discussion. But given the gap between (inadequate) plans to combat warming and the necessary path (of gas cuts) to get the economy to a safe climate, this appointment could also be an opportunity for self-criticism. The meeting is preceded by new clear scientific evidence of warming and its impacts, while denialism gains strength and threatens with its prescriptions based on inaction, symbolized by the recent elections in the United States. The event should serve to capture the pulse of the interest and ambition with which countries face their obligation under the Paris Agreement (2015) to present new national climate action plans before next February.
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Democratic delegates will still be at the summit
Trump’s victory in the US elections once again raises serious questions about America’s involvement in climate action. This second Trump presidency threatens to weaken multilateralism and defunding UN institutions. The United States could withdraw not only from the Paris Agreement against warming (2015), but also from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992, Rio de Janeiro). North American administrations are expected to attempt to expand oil and gas drilling.
Biden administration representatives will still be present at the Baku conference because the handover has not yet taken place, but they are not expected to play a strategic role in achieving the new climate financing target.
If the Trump administration abandons the negotiation process, Europe, China, Japan and South Korea could benefit tens of billions of dollars from new trade opportunities based on clean energy.
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Above 1.5ºC compared to the pre-industrial era
The summit comes as 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record. Each of the last 10 years ranked among the 10 hottest years ever recorded. The planet is now experiencing the hottest moment in its history in the last 120,000 years. For the first time, average temperatures this year are likely to be 1.5ºC higher than before humans started burning fossil fuels.
The Paris Agreement was the first to set a target of keeping temperatures from rising by no more than 1.5°C to reduce climate damage (although this limit refers to exceeding this in the long term). Several climate properties studies have linked high temperatures and their impacts to disasters such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton and floods in Spain and the Sahel. The Earth is on track to warm between 2.6°C and 3.1°C this century.
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A state in the spotlight
Azerbaijan, the host state of the summit, is one of the largest exporters of oil and gas, and its climate action plan has been deemed “grossly inadequate”, which, moreover, would undermine the credibility of its launch as a mediator country. Is. Plans increase investment in oil and gas (expected to grow 14% by 2035). Various NGOs have criticized the repression of human rights protests against civil society activists and journalists. His initiatives include a $1 billion climate finance action plan. If launched, it would allow fossil fuel producing countries and companies to contribute to financing the fight against climate change.
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star theme of the conference
In Baku, above all, they will try to reach an agreement to set a new quantitative objective of economic resources, to be allocated both to developing countries for mitigation (emission reduction, promotion of clean energy…) and to developing countries. Countries will have to be allocated. Adaptation (building coastal protection and infrastructure, early warnings, more rational agriculture…). These contributions come mainly from public funds, multilateral banks and private companies. (Collaboration support is not included here).
The initially set objective of raising ₹100 billion annually for this purpose in 2020 was not achieved; But, according to the OECD, developed countries will already contribute more than that amount in 2022. Various groups of developing countries believe that $1 to $1.3 trillion (with a b) is needed per year. Reaching an agreement is key to supporting developing countries in their energy transition.
“The $100 billion is late and now the main thing is to update that target, which will not be easy,” says Marta Torres, an energy researcher at the Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (Idri). There will also be discussion on whether an agreement should be reached to set a specific economic target for funding for climate change adaptation. And above all, China’s role must be made clear; That is, “if this country also agrees to become a contributor to this objective”.
China alleges that it is in fact already doing so, but it does not want to admit that this contribution has the character of a formal legal obligation and takes refuge in the fact that it is one of the “developing” countries. Remains in the group and, therefore, is bound by fewer obligations under the classification included in the Climate Change Convention (in Rio de Janeiro, in 1992, when we had not even heard of globalization).
Furthermore, the EU and its 27 member states are the largest providers of climate finance in the world. The latest figures on international climate finance provided by the EU for 2023 show that it provided €28.6 billion through its financial instruments and mobilized the equivalent of €7.2 billion in private financing in 2023.
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specific details missing
At the same time, the Loss and Damage Fund should be nurtured, a new financing channel aimed at taking action aimed at urgently repairing damage resulting from climate change, at least in developed countries. The fund, managed by the World Bank, was approved last year and has not yet been implemented in all its aspects.
The debate on how to achieve other “innovative formulas” of fair financing will continue to be on the table. Marta Torres says that proposals have been launched for some time to compensate for the environmental damage caused by fossil energy, although this “will not be the subject of agreement, because it is not a sufficiently mature issue”. Taxes on financial transactions, resources from sea or air transport, or taxes on fossil fuels are some of them. Other solutions see it as crucial to reducing the debt of many countries for whom it is a straitjacket that strangles their own prospects for investing in climate action.
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transition away from fossil fuels
In the first days of the conference, countries are expected to make announcements about their climate action plans (Nationally Determined Contributions). The Paris Agreement requires that these national contributions be an improved revision of previous plans and must be submitted by February 2025. They should also build on the agreements of the last climate conference (Dubai), in those countries they promised to start a path forward. Exit fossil fuels and set a target to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The United Arab Emirates unveiled its national plan on the matter on 6 November, although analysts called it “misleading”, while noting that it was not in line with the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.
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Towards a drastic reduction in greenhouse gases
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is committed to the EU’s goal of climate neutrality by mid-century and has told her team to propose legislation in the coming months with the goal of reducing emissions by 90% by 2040. Has been instructed. , based on scientific recommendations.
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in full energy transition
The EU has committed to reducing emissions by 8.3% in 2023, the largest annual reduction in decades. Thus far, the EU has reduced its emissions by 37% compared to 1990 levels and has committed to reducing them by 55% in 2030. European Commission spokesmen said in a statement following the US election results. The Union has reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. European Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has reiterated his commitment to the -90% target by 2040.
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a necessary mediation
In the current geopolitical environment, COP29 negotiations will test the EU’s ability to play its traditional role as a “bridge builder” and “mediator”, even though it contributes only 9% of global emissions. Most EU countries have a clear interest in maintaining climate leadership, although many European heads of state and government cannot speak at the conference’s opening session; And neither Ursula von der Leyen nor Macron are expected to attend. The EU is interested in preserving international cooperation, including on climate issues, and strengthening the capacity of developing countries for decarbonizing by actively contributing to the success in Baku.
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A solution that remains controversial
An important and controversial issue in the negotiations will remain the establishment (management, control…) of carbon markets, which is included in Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. The goal of this mechanism is to find formulas that facilitate compliance with gas reduction targets. But the bigger challenge is to establish a formula that offers guarantees and transparency, that avoids the presence of credits or emissions rights that are not very reliable or of low quality and that ensures that carbon offsets (these certificates and emissions of reduction credits) represent a real impact on emissions reduction
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