Donald Trump’s return to the White House with a Republican-led Senate and House of Representatives in January 2025 is widely anticipated among international allies, and even some of America’s enemies would be happy about it. While the former has a good face, the latter has difficulty hiding his happiness.
As far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, Trump will likely try to force Kiev and Moscow into at least a ceasefire on the existing fronts. This could potentially include a permanent agreement recognizing Russia’s territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the territories it has occupied since a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Trump may also accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. Given Trump’s known hostility toward that organization, it would also put significant pressure on Kiev’s European allies. Trump could once again threaten to leave the alliance to get the Europeans to sign a deal with Putin on Ukraine.
When it comes to the Middle East, Republicans have been a strong defender of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past. Chances are he will double down, even taking an even tougher stance on Iran. This matches exactly the current priorities of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu appears determined to destroy Iran’s allies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen and to severely degrade Iranian capabilities. By firing his Defense Minister Yoav Galant, a critic of his handling of the Gaza offensive, Netanyahu has laid the groundwork for continuing the conflict there.
It is also preparing an extended offensive into Lebanon and a potentially devastating attack on Iran in response to any new Iranian actions against Israel.
Trump’s election will encourage Netanyahu to take action. And this, in turn, will also strengthen the new president’s position towards Putin, who has come to rely on Iranian support for his war in Ukraine. Trump may offer to rein in the Israeli leader as a bargaining chip with Putin to secure a deal on Ukraine in the future.
leaning towards china
While Ukraine and the Middle East are two regions where change is coming, relations with China will be more about continuity than change. Perhaps the main strategic foreign policy challenge for the United States, the Biden administration continues many of the policies that Trump pursued in his first term, and is likely to double down on them in the second term.
The Trump White House is likely to raise import tariffs, and he has talked a lot about using them to attack China. But it is also possible that Trump is ready for a practical and transactional agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Newscom / Alamy Live News
Like relations with his European allies in NATO, a serious question mark looms over Trump’s commitment to protecting Taiwan and other treaty allies in Asia, including the Philippines, South Korea and potentially Japan. Trump is absolutely indifferent about US security guarantees.
But as his on-again, off-again relationship with North Korea in his first term demonstrated, Trump remains willing to escalate, sometimes coming dangerously close to war. This occurred in response to North Korean testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2017.
The unpredictability of the Pyongyang regime creates the possibility of another such confrontation as the unpredictability of the new US president-elect raises speculation that he will accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as part of a broader agreement with Russia, which has Relations have become more close. With the Kim Jong-un regime.
Doing so would give Trump additional leverage over China, which has expressed concern over growing ties between Russia and North Korea.
Trump White House preparations
Friends and foes alike are going to use the remaining months before Trump returns to the White House to improve his position and accomplish things that will be difficult to do once he is in office.
Expectations that Trump will push for an end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are likely to escalate fighting there, which different parties believe could lead to an uptick. status quo More acceptable to them. This does not bode well for the humanitarian crisis already brewing in both regions.
An increase in tension in and around the Korean Peninsula can also be imagined. Perhaps Pyongyang wants to enhance its credibility with more (potentially nuclear) missile tests.
EPA-EFE/KCNA
Furthermore, escalating fighting in Europe and the Middle East and tensions in Asia could strain relations between the United States and its allies in all three regions. In Europe, the fear is that Trump could make a deal with Russia by sidelining his EU and NATO allies and threatening to abandon them.
This would undermine the longevity of any Ukrainian (or European in general) agreement with Moscow. The relatively disappointing state of European defense capabilities and the declining credibility of the US nuclear umbrella will encourage Putin to further pursue his imperial ambitions after reaching a deal with Trump.
In the Middle East, there will be no stop to Netanyahu. And yet, while some Arab regimes may applaud the Israeli strike against Iran and its allies, they will be concerned about the reaction to the plight of the Palestinians. If this eternal problem is not resolved, peace, leave alone stability, in the region will be practically impossible.
The challenges are different in Asia. The problem here is less US withdrawal and more unpredictable and potentially unmanageable growth. Under Trump, it is more likely that the United States and China will find it difficult to escape the so-called Thucydides trap: the inevitability of war between a dominant but declining power and its rising rival.
This raises questions about whether US alliances in the region are safe in the long term or whether some of its partners, such as Indonesia or India, would consider aligning with China.
At best, all this suggests greater uncertainty and instability not only after Trump’s inauguration, but also in the months following.
At worst, this would mean that Trump’s self-proclaimed infallibility has not worked. But by the time he and his team realize that geopolitics is a more complex business than real estate, they may have created the same chaos of which they accuse Biden and Harris.