What Ukraine’s proposal to end the war says “not before next year”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented this Wednesday in the country’s parliament his ‘Victory Plan’, with which he aims to bring Russia to the negotiating table, in order to “strengthen” Kiev’s position militarily and diplomatically. Want to put pressure on your colleagues. He said, “If we start moving forward with this plan now, we may be able to end the war before next year.”

Although the Ukrainian president has revealed more details about the proposal, the general outlines of which have gradually emerged in recent weeks, parts of the publicized plan remain confidential. Zelensky first presented the initiative to his US counterpart Joe Biden in late September, and plans to do the same at the European Council this Thursday.

“This plan can be implemented. It depends on the partners. “It is not up to Russia,” Zelensky said, adding that Russia “does not want an honest peace.” “We have to change the circumstances so that the war ends. No matter what Putin wants. “We must all change circumstances so that Russia is forced to make peace.”

In this sense, they have once again advocated for what they call a “just peace”, which they identify as a peace that meets Kiev’s conditions. “I want to be frank with you about how the situation is being handled in some non-public communications with Ukraine. We hear the word ‘negotiation’ from our partners, and the word ‘justice’ is much less common. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy,” he said.

“Russia must forever lose control over Ukraine and the desire for such control. This is a guarantee of life for Ukraine. And, at the same time, it is a guarantee of peace for Europe,” he said. “Russia must lose the war against Ukraine. And this is not a ‘freeze’. And it is not trading with Ukraine’s territories or sovereignty.

Throughout his speech, Zelensky appealed to his country, weary after more than two and a half years of war, to remain united as it faces a difficult moment, with Moscow moving east to the gates of winter and The uncertainty of important US elections is around the corner.

Five points and many secret contracts

As Zelensky explained in a speech in the chamber, after which he met with the leaders of parliamentary groups, the proposal includes five geopolitical, military and economic points that require political decisions and weapons from allies.

First on the list is an “unconditional” invitation for Ukraine to join NATO – with a view to joining later. “Russia has been taking advantage of geopolitical uncertainty in Europe for decades, particularly the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member. This is what tempted Russia to attack our security. Now, the fact that Ukraine has been invited to join NATO could really be fundamental for peace,” the Ukrainian president said this Wednesday.

“We understand that membership in NATO is a question of the future, not of the present,” he said, adding that an invitation would show Russian President Vladimir Putin the error of “his geopolitical calculations.” “An invitation is a firm decision that requires only determination. And today, this invitation symbolizes much more than NATO. For Ukraine, the decision on the NATO issue means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and also the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine.

As published by Reuters, Kiev’s ambassador to NATO said Ukraine wants the invitation to come before Biden leaves the White House after the election on November 5. The military alliance has announced that Ukraine will join, but says it cannot enter while it is at war and has refused to set a deadline for joining. Most members, including the United States, have shown no willingness to invite Ukraine to join the organization at this time.

The second point of the Ukrainian plan, which contains a secret appendix to which only allies with military capability will have access, concerns arms issues, which Zelensky defined as “the irreversible strengthening of Ukrainian defense” and “the reversal of Is the war towards the Russian Federation”, that is, taking the war to Russian territory so that Russian public opinion would “feel” the consequences and increase its pressure on the Kremlin. Here he referred to the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian Kursk region, which began in August and has advocated continuing his military operations to prevent the creation of a “security zone” for Russian troops in Ukraine.

As expected, Zelensky also included in the plan his request to Western partners to lift the ban on the use of long-range weapons “on the entire territory of Russian-occupied Ukraine and on Russian military infrastructure.” The Biden administration has so far been reluctant to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to attack military targets on Russian territory.

Similarly, the Ukrainian plan calls for “joint defensive operations to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within the range of allies’ air shields” with neighboring European countries. Kiev wants Poland to actively intervene by shooting down missiles both in its airspace and in western Ukraine. So far, Warsaw has not changed its policy.

The plan also calls for more air defenses, long-range missiles, drones and “other means of destruction.” Zelensky did not specify the type, but Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podolyak told wall street journal The plan included a request for greater numbers of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. He also requests that Kiev’s allies feed him intelligence “in real time” in order to weaken Russian combat capability.

The third point is defined by Zelensky as a non-nuclear “deterrent”, although he did not go into details and is also a secret agreement, which, according to the Ukrainian leader, will be signed between the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy. And the Germans have already received it.

In this section, he proposed deploying on Ukrainian soil “a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package that would be sufficient to defend the country”, in his words, “from any military threat from Russia.” As he argues, this would reduce Russia’s options “to the following approaches: engage in an honest diplomatic process to bring the war to a proper end, or be guaranteed the loss of the ability to continue the offensive war.” As he said, this point can be guaranteed “in particular, through financing within the framework of security agreements” that Kiev has already signed with its Western partners.

The fourth point relates to “Ukraine’s strategic and economic potential” and also has a secret annex. It is proposed to sign a special agreement with the European Union and the United States on joint conservation and investment in the production and use of resources.

Zelensky said, “The significant resource deposits in Ukraine, along with Ukraine’s globally significant energy and food production capacity, are some of Russia’s main offensive targets in a war.” “Ukraine proposes that Ukraine, together with designated partners, including the United States, the European Union, of which Ukraine will be a part, and other partners around the world, jointly protect Ukraine’s vital resources, jointly invest in, and related Will make a special agreement to utilize the economic potential.”

The Ukrainian President assures that “this is an agreement that will fundamentally complement and strengthen the existing system of economic pressure on Russia, that is, all existing sanctions”, limits on oil prices, export restrictions and other measures.

The fifth point is dedicated to the post-war period. Zelensky has argued that Ukrainian experience should be used to defend Europe and has offered to replace “some contingents” of US forces in Europe with Ukrainian units after the war.

What do Western partners and Russia say?

At the moment, most Western allies have not publicly expressed their opinion on the Ukrainian proposal. The United States State Department said the plan included “a series of productive steps”, but, as reported wall street journal In late September, some of those who knew the outline were “disaffected”. The same newspaper reported that the White House is concerned because the initiative lacks a clear strategy for victory against Russia.

The Kremlin, for its part, has said it considers the Ukrainian president’s plan “delusional” and Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at his daily press conference that Kiev should “come to its senses and understand the reasons behind it.” Must understand” This started the conflict in Ukraine.