Where is Ecuador going after international “embarrassment”? – DW – 04/16/2024

Ecuador is experiencing a turbulent legislature. A series of sudden events since Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa began his term last November have put the Latin American country in the spotlight.

A national state of emergency was added in January following a series of violence in prisons, followed by an attack on the Mexican Embassy in Quito in early April to oust former Vice President Jorge Glass.

Ngoba has been forced to be in office for half a year – as the legislature will only last sixteen months – which has so far not helped curb the grave situation of insecurity, drug trafficking and violence in the country.

Given this scenario, Ecuadorians are going to vote on April 21 in a referendum and popular consultation on other questions of an economic nature in addition to the security questions proposed by Noboa.

Experts tell DW that, if he is victorious in the consultations, Noboa could argue that he needs more time in power to continue necessary reforms in the fight against organized crime.

“His party can take advantage of this for the next presidential elections, in which he will run again,” Gledis Gonzalez, Latin America member of the International Crisis Group (ICG), told DW.

a referendum to validate

“On behalf of citizens, Noboa hopes to improve the situation of insecurity, so everything he does is politically in that direction,” Guillaume Long, lead researcher at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), told DW. ” Abbreviation in English), in London.

“They have proposed a popular consultation, a referendum, which I would call ‘punitive populism,'” says Long, referring to the questions submitted for this Sunday.

Ecuadorians will have to answer eleven questions, which relate to proposals including allowing the support of the armed forces in the functions of the National Police, arms control, increasing penalties for serious crimes or extradition, according to information published by the National Electoral Council ( CNE) by country.

“It appeals to the idea that increasing sentences will deter crime, when the problem is not the number of years in prison but the impunity for crimes,” said Pablo Ospina, a professor in the area of ​​social and global studies at Simon Bolivar Andean University.

He added, “The questions of consultation were not designed to address fundamental solutions to insecurity, but to be politically strengthened by the impact of the coup.”

“Embarrassment” from the outside.

The referendum comes days after the international “embarrassment” over the raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito, and despite the fact that, internally, Noboa has also improved its reputation, underlined analysts consulted by DW. Has gone.

“This demonstration represents exactly the kind of unrestricted fight against crime that the people who voted for him expected,” Gladys Gonzalez told DW. He further added, “The government was experiencing a progressive decline in its popularity and, perhaps, this was a strategy to improve its reputation, which has been well received in areas with anti-Corista sentiments.”

Similarly, Pablo Ospina believes that this action marks the end of “his political alliance with Chorismo”, as Noboa’s party – National Democratic Action (ADN) – had a parliamentary alliance with the Civil Revolution Movement. Its leader, Rafael Correa, was a close friend of George Glass.

Ospina says, “The occupation of the Mexican embassy, ​​in addition to creating a major embarrassment, marks a clear turn towards motivating the anti-Corista vote.”

For Mario Pazmino, international intelligence and security advisor for Latin America and Europe at the Security College US, Noboa’s image on the national level has been strengthened after the attack. “The country was tired of the permanent violation of its integrity and respect for Ecuador’s democracy,” he told DW.

“Trick” question

The referendum consists of two questions that point, on the one hand, to Ecuador’s return to international arbitration as a method of resolving investment disputes and, on the other hand, to allowing hourly work.

“Neither one nor the other has anything to do with security,” Long says. But given that he had a very good chance of winning, Noboa introduced them. It’s hard to do because they are complex issues. And there are many interests.”

For the expert, the resumption of international arbitration – prohibited in Ecuador by Article 422 of its Constitution – is “regrettable” and is caused “not only by ignorance”, but also by the specific interests of business groups “including the Noboa Group”. It also happens due to. He explains that all this belongs to the President himself.

Counseling will not solve insecurities

Some experts describe Noboa’s security management as “positive”, although new proposals are necessary. As for Mario Pazmiño, “there is a need to restructure the prison system, the intelligence system and the judicial system, because a large part of the judges work for organized crime,” he assures DW.

According to the Ecuadorian Organized Crime Observatory (OECO)With a rate of 47.25 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, Ecuador closed 2023 with more than 8,004 intentional homicides. This places it as the most violent country in Latin America and one of the most violent countries in the world.

“Crime has not been brought under control and it may take decades,” Gonzalo Ordóñez, a researcher in the communications area of ​​Simón Bolívar Andean University, tells DW. However, from the point of view of the next elections, the referendum is extremely valuable,” he says, despite all the criticism.

(RML)