Why does Caputo say what he says? From march to changed powers in Congress

“Let us be a nightmare to those who want to steal our dreams.” The poster with the foreboding phrase was held by a lone man on the edge of Plaza Congreso this Wednesday afternoon. If this note were a movie, the camera would zoom out and show him standing in the middle of Rivadavia Street (in a flagrant violation of Patricia Bullrich’s protocol) with a few people around him, then in the middle of thousands and finally at a point Would have stood in form. Surrounded by thousands of people. That huge crowd chanting “The country is not for sale” turned out to be the worst nightmare for a government that needed the most devastating adjustment ever to popular income, which would soon trigger a reaction from its victims. No attempt was made.

The efforts of the authorities and relevant media to minimize the impact of popular mobilization were notable, but The storm that engulfed the entire fiscal package of the omnibus legislation was generated by official resentment of bringing the “friendly opposition” closer to the government, in order to contrast that picture with the picture of a national strike. First he fantasized about getting the vote the previous Saturday and then he applied pressure to sign the “blank” opinion, a maneuver that led to a major scandal when irregularities in securing it were revealed.

Amidst so much failure, official internal matters came to the fore. Bullrich had to give up a bishop to Chief of Staff Nicolas Posey’s army, an important area of ​​relations with union leaders, and a minister introduced as fundamental a month earlier because of presidential leaks. Was done. Phrases that reveal the frustration that lack of success is pervasive at the heart of government.

miley’s progress

The day before the Segatista call, the President gave a virtual interview to former CNN journalist Patricia Zenit’s YouTube channel, a fringe media outlet that unusually aired the recording two days later, generating uncharacteristic comedy steps, such as Miley made predictions about the strike which were revealed after they occurred. he looked angry all the timePerhaps because their attention was on the screen, but more likely because of the growing resistance of governors and deputies to the coming mobilization and their omnibus legislation.

The growing anger was reflected in his statements. There he accused opponents of being “corrupt and parasitic” by refusing to vote on his closed-book project. And assured that he would be condemned in the society as a protector of decadence. “If they don’t approve it, nothing happens, some reforms can come later,” Caputo concluded in fine style, before promising that he would “accelerate fiscal adjustment.”

caputo show

Once the personal intervention of her sister Karina convinced Miley that the main articles of the law would not pass, the same ministers who threatened governors with lightning and lightning if they asked their deputies to vote on the financial chapter of the law omnibus Was not forced. Forced by the President to become the sole face of the official blowback on the matter.

In involuntary? The humorous sketch assured that the heart of the project was being withdrawn so that the rest could be approved. “We share a large part of the complaints and we understand that the governors fulfilled their mission of protecting their provinces,” he overreacted.

It is easy to talk nonsense. The most complicated thing is for someone to trust them. To protect the fiscal core of Megalaw, the government had already sacrificed a good part of its contents, certainly without realizing that they were “the true foundation of future development”, as Caputo explained. And now he faces a big challenge to convince the IMF and the financial world that “the goal of zero deficit is unshakable.” In other words, the famous “fiscal anchor” still holds.

deep inside they doubt

Some disbelievers may wonder why he tried to raise taxes by nearly 2 points of GDP, if it was so easy to cut spending by that amount.

The Monetary Fund had already expressed doubts about the political feasibility of the adjustments so happily offered by Miley and also demanded that they be supported by all political forces in Congress., I would not have passed. It is hard to believe that this jeopardizes the approval of disbursements already agreed this week, but it would not be strange if it creates a crisis in future negotiations.

“The eyes of the world are on the country,” Caputo said in one of his few verifiable statements. The problem for Miley and company is what those eyes saw this week: a government that is facing solid social resistance just a month in and that is trying to form a cartel with its potential allies to guarantee a minimum of governance. I am not even able to.

changed capabilities

“Who said all is lost?” The officials in charge of negotiations with the governors now sing. Amidst so many nightmares, His dream is that unprecedented delegated powers will be approved, at least leading to omnibus legislation. And, with them, go even further on population to achieve the dream of zero deficit without inconvenient parliamentary limitations. They must conquer the Hill of Deputies and, once their flag is planted there, conquer the Senate.

PRO is already offering to cooperate. After all, Mauricio Macri is so excited that this team is doing all the dirty work that he will obviously be trapped and Miley will have to go to him again to save him. And it is a mystery how far radical and “presentable” Peronists can go to shape guerrillaism in their voters.

But the official target is not guaranteed. Governors still don’t want to be seen “putting spokes in the wheel” for a brand new presidency, but neither do they want to find themselves tied to a clearly incompetent administration. And the presence of social resistance on the scene also challenges them. The conflict can ignite the national government, but can also affect the provincial government.

In the event that the Government ultimately achieves its objective, it will be necessary to see how far its imagination will go in achieving by decree what it cannot achieve by law. Certainly the delegation of powers will be judicialized And, like everything else that comes into the hands of the judges, it will serve above all to increase the power of the Court.

Amidst so much political speculation, the inflation resulting from megadevaluation, which will collect new monthly contributions with gradual tariff hikes, is creating a scenario where the future of the government is literally at stake. “This party is defined as being on the street,” summarizes one experienced mayor of the suburbs. A small demonstration, peaceful and orderly. Was seen around Congress on Wednesday. Another big wave, perhaps less peaceful and above all much less organized, appears on the horizon of poor neighborhoods throughout the country in a universe that may arrive in March or April.